Paramount Cancels HD DVD Slate

 

Video Business is reporting that Paramount Home Entertainment has canceled all their future HD DVD titles following next week's releases of Into the Wild and Things We Lost in the Fire.

Titles that had previously been announced but are now confirmed as canceled include Sweeny Todd, There Will Be Blood, Bee Movie, The Jack Ryan Collection, and The Kite Runner.

The studio has not yet announced release dates for their return to the Blu-ray disc format... though an announcement containing the initial titles and dates is expected soon.  Rumors suggest that announcement may be coming on March 4, though that date isn't yet confirmed.

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BBSpot: Top 11 Ways Sony Plans to Celebrate Their blu-ray Victory

 

Althogh BBSpot has been pro-HD DVD (like most of the Microsoft-sponsored online media) they have posted a humorous Top 11 list, of how Sony intends to celebrate its Blu-ray victory.  They take a lot of potshots at Sony in the process, but since we've won the format war, it's okay to laugh at the losers, now, I suppose:

11.  Add rootkit code to all Blu-Ray DVDs.

10.  Send solid gold fruit basket to Time Warner.

9.  Change name of Blu-Ray to something more meaningful. Like HD-DVD.

8.  Get unused "Victory for Betamax" banners out of storage. Edit them for the party.

7.  Call guys at Toshiba, and play Beck's "Loser" over the phone.

6.  Watch Rising Sun on their HD-DVD player.

5.  Release next generation of Higher-Definition video.

4.  Get T-shirts printed up that say, "The HD stands for Hopeless Despair" and send them to engineers at Toshiba.

3.  Raise price on Playstation 3 by $100.

2.  Release Gigli on Blu-Ray.

1.  Savor the brief moment of victory, while preparing for the next embarrassing defeat.

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Opinion: Why Blu-ray Will Succeed

 

With the recent death of the competing HD DVD format, many brand loyalists (read: paid shills) have taken to proclaiming that digital downloads are the future, or that DVD will continue on forever as the media format of choice.  Granted, these same people predicted that HD DVD would win the format war, so their crystal balls are obviously in need of serious repair, but since the claims are being made, it's worth taking the time to refute the nonsense.

First of all, DVD sales are falling.  Already.  That's the primary reason a new format is deemed necessary by the studios.  DVD is 480p at its best.  There's no getting around it -- DVD is standard-def in a soon to be high-def world.  Consumers can already watch the news (CNN) in HD... why the hell would ANYONE want to watch Hollywood films in a lower quality than the nightly news?

While HDTV still has a long way to go before completely replacing SD sets, the upcoming U.S. "analog sunset" will help a great deal... as will the fact that major retailers, such as Bet Buy, have stopped carrying SD sets in larger display sizes.  HDTV is here now, and as consumers replace their existing sets, its popularity will continue to grow exponentially.

In the retail market, even upconverting DVD players have reached a point where the profits to both retailers and manufacturers are almost nonexistant.  There is essentially no motivation for salespeople or retailers to try to push upconverting DVD players on new HDTV purchasers.  Blu-ray players, on the other hand, still produce a significant profit for both stores and manufacturers.  Given that Blu-ray is TRULY HD, and not just upscaled SD... there is significant benefit to the consumer as well.  With the format war out of the way, stores are going to be pushing like-branded Blu-ray players to those customers shopping for HDTVs in a big way.  And consumers... seeing the huge picture quality advantages will take advantage of the "combo offers" made by retailers and will be buying into Blu-ray at the same time as they get their new HDTV.

The "keeping up with the Jones'" factor cannot be ignored either.  Prior to HD DVDs downfall, many consumers didn't want to risk being left with a soon-to-be-deceased format.  With that settled, and Blu-ray as the sole mainstream HD format going forward, it is now the "must have" product for technophiles and others who want to be ahead of the curve.  Soon, the trend will move to the average consumer, much as DVD did in the late 90s.  Soon enough, most consumers will know SOMEONE with a Blu-ray player that won't shut up about how much better it is than DVD, and will decide that they, too, need it.

As for "digitial downloads," the latest brainstorm from previous HD DVD supporters, I'll admit... it IS coming.  Is it a threat to Blu-ray?  No.  Digital downloads will make a dent in the rental market... that much is certain.  How much of a dent it makes has yet to be determined, and depends upon a number of factors such as cost, quality, and availability of high speed internet access for the consumer.  The digital download services currently available lack the quality and title availability of Blu-ray discs.  Worse, they cost more to rent than Blu-ray discs. There really is no upside, except, perhaps in convenience.  The quality will go up some, prices may come down a bit, but the overall strategy of digital downloads (and cable/satellite VOD as well) is to offer as much product as possible... not to provide the best viewing experience possible.  As such, the amount of content available will likely increase, but the quality of the actual product is unlikely to take a major turn for the better... especially compared to the quality of Blu-ray disc.

As for digital download services that provide an ownership model similar to that offered by Blu-ray disc or DVD, no successful service yet exists.  One or more are likely coming... but again, the quality of the transfer is sure to pale in comparison to Blu-ray, and any "bonus content" is sure to be left behind in an effort to minimize the bandwidth required to download the purchase.  For those who supported HD DVD due to its having less DRM than Blu-ray, be prepared for the apocalypse, as digital downloads will be chalk full of DRM, and will prevent you from doing things you CAN do with Blu-ray disc... such as loaning discs to friends or selling titles you no longer want. 

The other MAJOR problem for digital download services is that no retailer will be pushing for the technology.  Best Buy, Circuit City, Wal-Mart, etc. all have a major interest in preventing digital downloads from becoming a viable alternative to in-store sales of media.  Media... Bluray or DVD... provides profit to retailers and gets consumers into the store at which point they may be able to be sold on other products with an even higher profit potential.  Digital downloads and VOD services keep customers in their homes, and currently don't provide any revenue to major retailers, so their interests are completely at odds with potential providers.  To those who don't think the Best Buy's of this world have any influence over consumer trends... there is no hope for you.  To the realists in the audience, however... just know that what stores push is what sells.  I don't want to imply that consumers are sheep... but... it's pretty simple really.

In short, Blu-ray is THE future HD format, and there's not a whole lot the haters can do about it.  All the phophesizing and FUD in the world can't change the facts in the stores.  Those with an irrational hatred of certain companies will certainly hate the reality of the situation, but that alone won't change it.  The future is here.  And... "The future is Blu."

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SCEA Prepares New 80GB PS3 Model

 

With the recent discontinuation of the 80GB PS3 Bundle featuring the hit game Motorstorm, many were left wondering what Sony's plans were as no new higher-end PS3 SKU was announced at that time that retained any backward compatibility with PS2 games.

At their Destination PlayStation event today, Sony revealed their plans for a revamped bundle set to hit store shelves later this spring.

The new bundle, which will retail for $499, includes:

• 80GB PS3 (with the same backwards compatibility with PS2 games the previous 80GB model had)
• DualShock 3 controller
• Metal Gear Solid 4 game

Obviously, the new bundle won't launch until Metal Gear Solid 4 does, but it should make for a great value for the many gamers who were waiting for AAA game titles such as MGS4 before spending the money on a PS3 system.

The new DualShock 3 controller that is included with the new system bundle will also be available separately starting April 15 at an MSRP of $54.99.  The DualShock 3, as its name implies, brings back the vibration feature made popular in earlier PlayStation consoles.

The reason for discontinuing the existing 80GB model so long before the launch of the new bundle wasn't revealed, but it seems likely that the new model will use the 65nm Cell processor currently found in the 40GB PS3 model.  The 65nm Cell processor uses considerably less power and runs cooler than the 90nm Cell processor found in earlier PS3 models.  If fabrication of the 90nm Cell processors has ceased, then it makes sense that the system using it would need to be discontinued -- or at least refitted with the newer processor.

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80th Annual Academy Awards Recap

 

The 80th Annual Academy Awards were held this past Sunday at the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles, CA.  The show ran smoothly despite despite having a much shorter preparation time than usual due to the Hollywood writer's strike. 

The Winners of the night were:

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men

Best Director: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Best Supporting Actress: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Best Animated Feature: Ratatouille

Best Documentary Feature: Taxi to the Dark Side

Best Documentary Short Subject: Freeheld

Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno

Best Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men

Best Cinematography in Film: There Will Be Blood

Best Original Score: Atonement

Best Original Song: “Falling Slowly“, Once

Best Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters

Best Film Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum

Best Song: “Falling Slowly“, Once

Best Sound Mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum

Best Sound Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum

Best Animated Short Film: Peter and the Wolf

Best Live Action Short Film: Le Mozart de Pickpockets

Best Art Direction: Sweeney Todd: The Barber of Fleet Street

Best Visual Effects: The Golden Compass

Achievement in Makeup: La Vie en Rose

Best Costume Design: Elizabeth: The Age

Sadly, due in part to the lack of any major blockbusters being nominated for major awards, this year's Oscars were the least viewed telecast since Nielson started recording the numbers.  But the big winners are fantastic films, even if their success at the box office hasn't been earth-shattering.

No Country for Old Men, the big winner of the evening, is a brilliant work by the Coen Brothers, telling the story of a drug-deal gone bad -- and the effects on various people involved in its aftermath.  It's a brutal film with some amazing performances... but the viewer needs to be prepared for the story to be told in a rather nontraditional way.  Exposition and explanation are largely absent... and that works to the film's benefit, though some viewers will find it difficult for that reason.

There Will Be Blood, written and directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, was the other true masterpiece released this year.  Like No Country for Old Men, its a dark tale, but absolutely brilliant in its execution.  The story revolves around Daniel Plainview, as portrayed by Daniel Day-Lewis in one of the all-time great film performances.  Plainview is a self-described "oil man" back in the early 20th century who makes a fortune swindling a town out of the land rights to their oil rich property.  The story follows his business success and personal failures, which eventually drive him into a despair and madness that feels so true that it will chill you.

Juno, in stark contrast to the above films, is a charming comedy about teen pregnancy -- not exactly typical Oscar fare.  The script, though, by first-time screenwriter (and former stripper... er, "exotic dancer") Diablo Cody is extremely intelligent, with dialog far smarter than anything ever said in real life.  Despite the "smarter-than-you" dialog, there's a fundamental humanity in the film that pulls you in as a viewer, and really makes you like the characters in this film despite all of their (MANY) faults.

Michael Clayton is a very solid legal thriller that in a year with less truly amazing films likely would have done far better at the Oscars.  As it is, it largely took a back seat to the above films.  It's very much worth checking out, though, for the great performances and well-crafted script. 

One other film that is very much worth checking out is In the Valley of Elah, a story about a father searching for his missing son, who had recently returned from serving in Iraq.  Tommy Lee Jones puts in a fantastically restrained performance, and the film does a great job of exploring the culture of the military and the effect of war on soldiers, without being overly judgmental or political in dealing with the current war itself.

All of the above films except for There Will Be Blood have been released or officially announced for release on Blu-ray disc in the U.S.  There Will Be Blood, which is a Paramount release, has a trailer up on the Hollywoodinhighdef website stating that it is coming to Blu-ray... though no official announcement has been made.

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Paramount/Dreamworks Announce Blu-ray Support!

 

Within two days of Toshiba's announcement that they would be discontinuing production and sales of the HD DVD format, the last of the HD DVD-supporting studios have now announced Blu-ray Disc plans going forward.

Universal, long Toshiba's chief ally, made their announcement of support for Blu-ray yesterday, and now today Paramount has sent a notice to The Hollywood Reporter that they, too, will be supporting the Blu-ray Disc standard:

"We are pleased that the industry is moving to a single high-definition format, as we believe it is in the best interest of the consumer," the statement reads. "As we look to (begin) releasing our titles on Blu-ray, we will monitor consumer adoption and determine our release plans accordingly."

No specific release plans dates were announced, but it is expected that the titles Paramount had previously released on Blu-ray Disc (and then pulled when the studio made a deal for HD DVD exclusivity) would be re-released to the retail market first, followed by announcements on new titles.

This means that all six of the major Hollywood studios officially support the Blu-ray Disc format, unifying Hollywood behind the next-gen optical format.  This should end the customer confusion that was associated with the "format war" and allow consumers to buy into the format with confidence that the format has the full support of Hollywood.

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Engadget's "10 Things to Do with Your Now Defunct HD DVD Player"

 

Hopefully, my readers don't have a now defunct HD DVD player, so hopefully you all will take this better than the commenters on Engadget did, but just for fun, here's their list:

1. Mail it to the office of Howard Stringer in protest of Blu-ray's victory.
2. Plug it into your clothes dryer's 240-volt outlet. Woops, honey! My bad, guess we have to buy a Blu-ray player now.
3. Finally, replace your Betamax player.
4. Buy the Blu-ray player of your choice, put it in the box, attempt to return it as "defective."
5. Channel it through Whoopi Goldberg and make some pottery with it.
6. Put a Blu-ray disc in the tray and then call up Toshiba when it doesn't work. Repeatedly.
7. Put it in a time capsule, just to confuse future generations.
8. Buy a few dozen of 'em and build a little hut for your Blu-ray player.
9. Lock it alone in a room with a few lethal weapons... let it die honorably.
10. Use it to upscale DVDs, which is all you ever used it for anyways.

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Universal Announces Blu-ray Support!

 

Things are obviously going to be happening quite quickly now that Toshiba has officially pulled the plug on the HD DVD format.  Home Media Magazine has spoken with Universal Studios Home Entertainment President Craig Kornblau, who officially announced the studios' Blu-ray plans:

"While Universal values the close partnership we have shared with Toshiba, it is time to turn our focus to releasing new and catalog titles on Blu-ray.  The path for widespread adoption of the next-generation platform has finally become clear. Universal will continue its aggressive efforts to broaden awareness for hi-def’s unparalleled offerings in interactivity and connectivity, at an increasingly affordable price. The emergence of a single, high-definition format is cause for consumers, as well as the entire entertainment industry, to celebrate."

Hopefully a press release will follow soon with some title announcements including dates.  And expect a similar announcement from Paramount/Dreamworks shortly.

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Official Press Release: Toshiba Exiting HD DVD Business

 

Well, it's official now.  Toshiba is exiting the HD DVD business and will stop selling product in retail by the end of March.  This includes all HD DVD players, recorders, and PC drives.  No mention was made if they will make a Blu-ray Disc player in the near future or if they intend to stick with DVD for the time being.

Their official press release is shown in full below:

Toshiba Announces Discontinuation of HD DVD Businesses -- Company Remains Focused on Championing Consumer Access to High Definition Content

TOKYO--Toshiba Corporation today announced that it has undertaken a thorough review of its overall strategy for HD DVD and has decided it will no longer develop, manufacture and market HD DVD players and recorders. This decision has been made following recent major changes in the market. Toshiba will continue, however, to provide full product support and after-sales service for all owners of Toshiba HD DVD products.

HD DVD was developed to offer consumers access at an affordable price to high-quality, high definition content and prepare them for the digital convergence of tomorrow where the fusion of consumer electronics and IT will continue to progress.

"We carefully assessed the long-term impact of continuing the so-called 'next-generation format war' and concluded that a swift decision will best help the market develop," said Atsutoshi Nishida, President and CEO of Toshiba Corporation. "While we are disappointed for the company and more importantly, for the consumer, the real mass market opportunity for high definition content remains untapped and Toshiba is both able and determined to use our talent, technology and intellectual property to make digital convergence a reality."

Toshiba will continue to lead innovation, in a wide range of technologies that will drive mass market access to high definition content. These include high capacity NAND flash memory, small form factor hard disk drives, next generation CPUs, visual processing, and wireless and encryption technologies. The company expects to make forthcoming announcements around strategic progress in these convergence technologies.

Toshiba will begin to reduce shipments of HD DVD players and recorders to retail channels, aiming for cessation of these businesses by the end of March 2008. Toshiba also plans to end volume production of HD DVD disk drives for such applications as PCs and games in the same timeframe, yet will continue to make efforts to meet customer requirements. The company will continue to assess the position of notebook PCs with integrated HD DVD drives within the overall PC business relative to future market demand.

This decision will not impact on Toshiba's commitment to standard DVD, and the company will continue to market conventional DVD players and recorders. Toshiba intends to continue to contribute to the development of the DVD industry, as a member of the DVD Forum, an international organization with some 200 member companies, committed to the discussion and defining of optimum optical disc formats for the consumer and the related industries.

Toshiba also intends to maintain collaborative relations with the companies who joined with Toshiba in working to build up the HD DVD market, including Universal Studios, Paramount Pictures, and DreamWorks Animation and major Japanese and European content providers on the entertainment side, as well as leaders in the IT industry, including Microsoft, Intel, and HP. Toshiba will study possible collaboration with these companies for future business opportunities, utilizing the many assets generated through the development of HD DVD.

All that's left is to see announcements from Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks, which could come as early as later today.

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Blu-ray Deals of the Week (2/17-2/23)

 

Despite the claims on the internet that Blu-ray sales would come to an end with the death of HD DVD, retailers are continuing to offer some fantastic deals on both discs and players.  In-store deals are generally good Sunday - Saturday unless otherwise noted.

Amazon.com:

• Buy 2 Get 1 Free on select Sony, Warner, and New Line titles
• Panasonic DMP-BD30K Final Standard Profile (BonusView capable) Blu-ray Disc player on sale for $429.99
• Samsung BD-P1400 Blu-ray disc player on sale for $356.99
• Sharp Aquos BD-HP20U Blu-ray disc player on sale for $316.15
• Sony BDP-S300 Blu-ray Disc player on sale for $349.77

JR.com:

• Select Sony Blu-ray titles on sale for $11.99 and $15.99 -- sale ends 2/17

BestBuy.com:

• Select Sony Blu-ray titles on same for 30% off -- sale ends 2/18 (online only)

Target:

• Free $40 Target giftcard with purchase of a PS3

Best Buy:

• $10 off select Blu-ray titles (sale prices are $14.99 - $24.99)

Circuit City:

• $24.99 sale on select Blu-ray titles

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Toshiba Ends HD DVD Production

 

Following up on the report in The Hollywood Reporter on Friday that Toshiba was planning to give up on the HD DVD format some time within the next few weeks, NHK and Reuters are now reporting that the plug has officially been pulled.

According to the reports, Toshiba is ceasing production of current HD DVD players and will not be developing new players or recorders for the format.

A source within Toshiba leaked the news to the Japanese press, preparing the media for an official press release from the company set for early next week.

Losing the format war and getting out of the market is expected to cost Toshiba hundreds of millions of dollars, though they will at least prevent further hemorrhaging of funds by continuing to sell players at below production costs.

This move will officially release Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks from any contracts they have with Toshiba and allow them to move forward with releasing their films on the Blu-ray format.  Announcements from both studios could also expected as early as next week.

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Wal-Mart Goes Blu-ray Exclusive!

 

Following announcements from Netflix and Best Buy earlier in the week, Wal-Mart today announced that they will be dropping HD DVD products from all their stores, as well as the Walmart.com and Samsclub.com websites.

The transition is set to begin immediately, with a big push toward Blu-ray taking place over the next month.  By June, 2008, all HD DVD product will be gone from the websites and store shelves.

According to Gary Severson, Senior VP of Home Entertainment for Wal-Mart:

"We’ve listened to our customers, who are showing a clear preference toward Blu-ray products and movies with their purchases.  With the customers best interest in all we do, we wanted to share our decision and timeline with them as soon as possible, knowing it will help simplify their purchase decision, increase selection, and increase adoption long term.  We anticipate enhancing our selection with continued great values in hi-definition Blu-ray products, so our customers can further enhance their entertainment experience at home."

This certainly adds even more credence to the Hollywood Reporter story from yesterday that Toshiba was preparing to throw in the towel within the next couple of weeks.  If HD DVDs coffin hadn't been completely sealed prior to today, it most certainly is now.

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Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: Nielson VideoScan Comparison for Week Ending 2/10/08

 

Every week Home Media Magazine reports the latest Nielson VideoScan numbers for the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD battle.  They include three figures: Weekly, Year-to-date, and Since Inception.  Weekly numbers examine discs sold at retail over the course of just the current week, the YTD numbers look at sales from the first week ending in 2008 to the present, and the since inception numbers show the relative performance of Blu-ray and HD DVD discs since the formats' respective births.

Nielson VideoScan Data for Week Ending 2/10/08

Source: Nielson VideoScan via http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

Weekly sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 81% to 19%, 100:23.5, or 4.26:1

YTD sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 77% to 23%, 100:29.9, or 3.35:1

Since Inception sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 65% to 35%, 100:53.8, or 1.86:1

Blu-ray continued to trounce HD DVD at retail last week despite numerous HD DVD 1/2 off sales at various retailers.  Given the major announcements from retailers and rentailers this week, things should only get worse as time goes on. 

 

Nielson VideoScan Top 10 for Week Ending 2/10/08

Source: Nielson VideoScan via http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

Universal managed to get one new release HD DVD to crack the Top 10, though it has to be embarrassing to be beaten by a lot of Blu-ray catalog titles -- especially given the sale pricing on HD DVD discs.

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NPD Group Releases January, 2008 U.S. Console Sales Numbers

 

NPD has released their console sales numbers for the U.S., for January, 2008.  The next-gen console sales for the month were:

XBox 360: 230,000 

PS3: 269,000

Wii: 274,000

Well, this marks a banner month for the PS3, as it outsold the XBox 360 in Microsoft's home territory for the first time since its release.  The PS3 also managed to beat out Sony's last-gen system, the PS2.  Whether this marks the beginning of a trend or nice bump on the radar remains to be seen.

After falling behind the XBox 360's U.S. trendline, the PS3 has started making a comeback... at least in terms of sales by time since released.

Obviously, the XBox 360 has been out considerably longer than the other consoles, so in the interests of fairness, here is a chart that shows the total sales of the consoles over their lifetimes.

Due to its year-long head start, the XBox 360 continues to be the top selling next-gen gaming system in the U.S., though the Wii is set to overtake it soon, much as it already has worldwide.

The PS3's future is looking brighter and brighter, though 2008 is shaping up to be the real deciding time in the next-gen console war.

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Rumor: Toshiba to Give Up High-def Format War Within the Next Few Weeks

 

The Hollywood Reporter is reporting that their sources are telling them Toshiba will be "pulling the plug" on the HD DVD format within the next few weeks. Given all the recent news of companies defecting the HD DVD camp, the move isn't all that surprising, though the speed at which the format war is ending is somewhat startling.

Since Warner Brothers announced they would be supporting the Blu-ray format exclusively in the future, Blu-ray has emerged as the clear winner in a format war that could have dragged on for considerable time. With Blu-ray now commanding over 80% exclusive studio support, there really doesn't appear to be any plays left in Toshiba's playbook. Despite their latest price cuts on players and 1/2 off sales on discs, the HD DVD camp only managed to grab 19% of disc sales last week, and only 28% of player sales.

In an out of character and fairly evasive manner, Toshiba's official response was:

Officially, no decision has been made, insists Jodi Sally, VP of Marketing for Toshiba America Consumer Products.... But she hinted that something's in the air.

Unofficially, however:

"An announcement is coming soon," said one source close to the HD DVD camp. "It could be a matter of weeks."

Perhaps more tellingly, however, is the deafening silence from other HD DVD supporters:

Several phone calls to Kevin Collins, Microsoft's normally accessible "HD DVD evangelist," were not returned. Nor were calls to Ken Graffeo, the Universal Studios Home Entertainment executive who doubles as co-president of the HD DVD North American Promotional Group.

When reporters can't get "Crazy Ken" on the line to talk about HD DVD, then its probably a safe bet that the end is near.

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Netflix and Best Buy Endorse Blu-ray

 

In two more signs of the demise of the HD DVD format, more major retailers are announcing plans to focus on Blu-ray sales and rentals going forward.

Netflix today announced that they will stop ordering new HD DVD releases and will be phasing out existing stock over the course of the year.

According to Ted Sarandos, Chief Content Officer for Netflix:

"The prolonged period of competition between two formats has prevented clear communication to the consumer regarding the richness of the high-def experience versus standard definition. We are now at the point where the industry can pursue the migration to a single format, bring clarity to the consumer and accelerate the adoption of high-def. Going forward, we expect that all of the studios will publish in the Blu-ray format and that the price points of high-def DVD players will come down significantly."

Equally importantly, Best Buy, the largest U.S. retailer of Blu-ray and HD DVD discs, has announced that they will be "officially recommending" Blu-ray products over HD DVD products beginning in early March.

According to Brian Dunn, Best Buy's President and Chief Operating Officer:

"Consumers have told us that they want us to help lead the way. We've listened to our customers, and we are responding. Best Buy will recommend Blu-ray as the preferred format. Our decision to shine a spotlight on Blu-ray Disc players and other Blu-ray products is a strong signal to our customers that we believe Blu-ray is the right format choice for them."

Best Buy will continue stocking a reduced selection of HD DVD players and software for the time being, in order to satisfy those existing HD DVD customers, but they didn't indicate how long they would continue doing so.

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WGA Strike to End Wednesday

 

The Writers Guild of America strike, which has ground Hollywood to a near halt for the last 14 weeks, is set to end this week, as the writer's vote to end the strike due to a new offer from the major studios.

Voting is taking place now and will continue through Tuesday night on whether to officially call off the strike. The ruling boards have unanimously blessed the deal, so the measure is widely expected to pass among members.  This would allow writers to return to work this Wednesday.

The proposed contract will then be voted on over the next two weeks.  The new 3 year contract provides many new income sources for writers, including residuals on web streaming and other new media.  On the other hand, the WGA failed to get control over reality television writing, one of their goals earlier in the negotiation process.

With writer's returning midweek expect the effect to be felt first on late-night shows, who, with the exception of Letterman, have been sans scribes since returning to the air last month.  Scripted television with a longer lead time will be going back into production as quickly as possible, with new episodes possibly coming for some shows in as little as two weeks.

With the Director's Guild of America contract already ratified, and the WGA contract now settled, it seems unlikely the soon-to-expire Screen Actor's Guild contract will lead to a strike of its own. 

In other WGA news, the Guild's annual awards ceremony was to have been held this past Saturday, but it was canceled due to the Guild's own strike.  They did announce the winners, however:

Best Original Screenplay: Juno

Best Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men

Best Documentary Screenplay: Taxi to the Dark Side

Best Drama Series: The Wire

Best Comedy Series: 30 Rock

Best New Series: Mad Men

Best Episodic Drama: The Sopranos (The Second Coming)

Best Episodic Comedy: The Office (The Job)

Best Comedy/Variety: The Colbert Report

Best Daytime Serials: The Young and the Restless

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Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: Nielson VideoScan Comparison for Week Ending 2/3/08

 

Every week Home Media Magazine reports the latest Nielson VideoScan numbers for the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD battle.  They include three figures: Weekly, Year-to-date, and Since Inception.  Weekly numbers examine discs sold at retail over the course of just the current week, the YTD numbers look at sales from the first week ending in 2008 to the present, and the since inception numbers show the relative performance of Blu-ray and HD DVD discs since the formats' respective births.

Nielson VideoScan Data for Week Ending 2/3/08

Source: Nielson VideoScan via http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

Weekly sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 74% to 26%, 100:35.1, or 2.85:1

YTD sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 76% to 24%, 100:31.6, or 3.35:1

Since Inception sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 65% to 35%, 100:53.8, or 1.86:1

I suppose this actually could be considered a good week for HD DVD, since they didn't quite get beat 3:1 by Blu-ray.  Of course this was a week in which both Best Buy and Amazon.com had HUGE HD DVD sales, so a "dead cat bounce" was expected.

Nielson VideoScan Top 10 for Week Ending 2/3/08

Source: Nielson VideoScan via http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

Well, I guess the sales helped HD DVD a little.  2 of their titles managed to crack the top 10.  Granted it was in a week with no major Blu-ray releases, and that's still a pretty sad statistic... but since it may be the last time they get any titles in the top 10 its worth mentioning.

Of course, more and more stores are either announcing their intention to drop HD DVD... or rumors abound about players no being reordered.  Given the ruckus about HD DVD player returns outnumbering new stock, I doubt I'd be rushing to reorder the players, either... no matter how much Toshiba lowers the cost.

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Warner Brothers Catalog Release Slate for 2008

 

I normally don't report on title announcements, but this year is Warner Brothers' 85th Anniversary and they have announced a slew of titles as part of their anniversary celebration.  Some of these are titles we've been expecting, but others are part of 9 newly announced promotions!  Here's the breakdown of the catalog titles announced for Blu-ray, according to Bill Hunt, over at The Digital Bits:

Oscar Promotion and Gangster Promotion (starting in Q1):

• Bonnie and Clyde: Ultimate Collector's Edition

Sinatra Promotion and Dirty Harry Promotion (starting in Q2):

• Dirty Harry
• Magnum Force
• The Enforcer
• Sudden Impact
• Dead Pool
• Dirty Harry: Ultimate Collector's Edition boxset (with all the above titles)

Superhero Promotion, Western Promotion, and Music Promotion (starting in Q3):

• Batman Begins: Limited Collector's Edition
• Batman Anthology Boxset (all the Batman films)
• How the West Was Won

Horror Promotion and Holiday Promotion (starting in Q4):

• A Christmas Story: Ultimate Collector's Edition

Other catalog titles due in 2008:

• The Matrix
• V for Vendetta
• An American in Paris
• Gigi
• Mutiny on the Bounty
• Forbidden Planet
• Casablanca
• Excalibur
• The Adventures of Robin Hood
• Grand Prix
• Clash of the Titans
• Twister
• Heat (pending a new 1080p transfer)

Catalog titles due in 2009:

• The Wizard of Oz
• Gone with the Wind
• Woodstock
• North by Northwest
• Ben-Hur

Warner promises that many more catalog titles will be announced throughout the year, and that this is just "the tip of the iceberg."  Even better, starting in late summer, Warner's goal is to release a Blu-ray disc version of EVERY new special edition DVD they release from that point on!

Source

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Politics: Super Tuesday Political Round-up

 

With nearly half the states in the country having caucuses or primaries yesterday, it was widely thought that we would by and large know who the candidates were likely to be by now.  Well, at least on the Democratic side, things are as confused as ever.

Let's look at the breakdown:

 

The Democrats

State	Date	Winner	2nd Place
Iowa	1/3/2008	Obama	Edwards
New Hampshire	1/8/2008	Clinton	Obama
Michigan*	1/15/2008	Clinton	Uncommitted
Nevada	1/19/2008	Clinton	Obama
South Carolina	1/26/2008	Obama	Clinton
Florida*	1/29/2008	Clinton	Obama
Alabama	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Alaska	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Arizona	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
Arkansas	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
California	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
Colorado	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Connecticut	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Delaware	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Georgia	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Idaho	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Illinois	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Kansas	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Massachusetts	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
Minnesota	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Missouri	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
New Jersey	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
New Mexico	2/5/2008	Too close	to call*
New York	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
North Dakota	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Oklahoma	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
Tennessee	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
Utah	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
American Samoa	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama

* - Michigan and Florida moved their primaries up, against the direction of the DNC.  As a result, they are not receiving any delegates to the convention, and their primary votes essentially don't count, unless the DNC changes their ruling.  With 98% of the vote counted in New Mexico, CNN still cannot declare a winner as only few hundred votes separate the candidates.

In terms of states won, Obama came out of Super Tuesday with more state victories than Clinton, though Clinton won in most of the larger states that tend to be democratic strongholds.  In terms of actual votes cast, Clinton had a very slight victory over Obama nationwide.

Technically, neither winning a state nor getting the most votes really means anything in the primary season, as delegates at the national conventions will actually select the candidate.  The different parties and different states have differing ways of selecting delegates, so until ALL the votes are counted and analyzed we don't know exactly how many delegates each candidate will get from Super Tuesday.  CNN is working around the clock figuring out the delegate breakdown and the chart below is what they are currently reporting.  There are still many more delegates to award from yesterday, however.

	Estimated	Estimated
	Primary	Total
Candidate	Delegates+	Delegates+
Clinton	630	823
Obama	635	741
Pledged Delegates	3253
Superdelegates	796
Total Delegates	4049
Needed to win	2025

+ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far.  The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all Superdelegates who have indicated their preference.

Clinton continues to lead Obama in terms of total delegates but not by a large margin.  Her lead could expand some more once CNN can project more of the California delegates, but the final tally definitely isn't going to lead to either candidate being able to declare a major victory from Super Tuesday.

With the upcoming primaries and caucuses throughout the rest of this month being mainly in states where Obama leads, its almost certain the two candidates will be fighting each other at least until the next major battle on March 4.

Assuming the trends continue and neither candidate makes a huge blunder, its becoming more and more likely that neither candidate will get enough "pledged" delegates (those assigned from primary and caucus votes) to be announced the winner.  In that case the 796 Superdelegates allowed to vote at the convention could pick the candidate.  These are high-ranking Democratic party officials who can vote for whomever they choose.  If they remain split (or enough refuse to vote to decide the nominee) then the Democrats could end up with a brokered convention, in which multiple rounds of voting would take place, allowing for "brokering" to take place for delegates to switch allegiances until one candidate gets enough delegates to take the nomination.

Looking at the Democratic exit polls, several interesting trends appear nationwide:

• Obama leads heavily among African-American voters, while Clinton leads among Latino and Asian-American voters
• Clinton leads among women, except African-American women, while Obama leads among men
• Clinton leads among voters with household incomes under $50,000, while Obama leads among those with household incomes over $50,000
• Obama leads among college-educated voters, while Clinton leads among those with less education
• Clinton has slightly more support among Democrats, while Obama has far more support from independents
• Obama leads among voters under age 40, while Clinton leads among voters over age 45 (40-45 are fairly even)
• More women are voting in the Democratic primaries and caucuses than men, though turnout is at record levels for both sexes

One thing to note is that most Democratic voters are reporting that while they support one candidate over the other at the primaries, they generally have a positive opinion of both candidates, and will vote for whichever gets the nomination.

 

Republicans

State	Date	Winner	2nd Place
Iowa	1/3/2008	Huckabee	Romney
Wyoming	1/5/2008	Romney	Thompson
New Hampshire	1/8/2008	McCain	Romney
Michigan**	1/15/2008	Romney	McCain
Nevada	1/19/2008	Romney	Paul
South Carolina**	1/19/2008	McCain	Huckabee
Florida**	1/29/2008	McCain	Romney
Maine	2/2/2008	Romney	McCain
Alabama	2/5/2008	Huckabee	McCain
Alaska	2/5/2008	Romney	Huckabee
Arizona	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
Arkansas	2/5/2008	Huckabee	McCain
California	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
Colorado	2/5/2008	Romney	McCain
Connecticut	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
Delaware	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
Georgia	2/5/2008	Huckabee	McCain
Illinois	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
Massachusetts	2/5/2008	Romney	McCain
Minnesota	2/5/2008	Romney	McCain
Missouri	2/5/2008	McCain	Huckabee
Montana	2/5/2008	Romney	Paul
New Jersey	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
New York	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
North Dakota	2/5/2008	Romney	McCain
Oklahoma	2/5/2008	McCain	Huckabee
Tennessee	2/5/2008	Huckabee	McCain
Utah	2/5/2008	Romney	McCain
West Virginia	2/5/2008	Huckabee	Romney

** - Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida all held their primaries earlier than directed by the RNC.  As a result, they have had half their delegates taken away from the convention.

With three major candidates still in the race, Super Tuesday was supposed to be the day when we would learn which of the candidates would have the support to continue.  As it happened, all three candidates came away with some big victories, and, as of now, all three plan to continue.

The delegate picture though, is much clearer on the Republican side:

	Estimated	Estimated
	Primary	Total
Candidate	Delegates++	Delegates++
McCain	663	680
Romney	261	270
Huckabee	173	176
Paul	16	16
Pledged Delegates	1917
Unpledged Delegates	463
Total Delegates	2380
Needed to win	1191

++ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far.  The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all unpledged delegates who have indicated their preference.

As you can see, McCain has an over 2:1 lead over both of his major challengers.  He also has 57% of the delegates he needs to clench the nomination.  It would take something huge to happen for McCain to lose at this point.  However, with the conservative Republican base (and their pundits) lining up against him, it's still too early to anoint him the candidate.

The Republican exit polls tend to give us little new knowledge, but confirm what we already know:

• McCain voters tend to be moderates and independents
• Romney voters tend to be traditional conservative Republicans
• Huckabee voters are also very conservative, and are made up largely of evangelical Christians

While the conservative base of the Republican party generally ends up picking the party's candidate, with both Romney and Huckabee splitting the vote, McCain has been able to pick up enough other voters to become the likely nominee.

Unlike the Democrats, most of whom are happy with both of their candidate choices, Republican voters are very unhappy with one or more of their choices.  Conservatives are outraged at McCain's success, and many of the pundits are saying they'll vote for the Democratic candidate in the general election should McCain get the nomination.  Romney supporters tend to also dislike Huckabee, who they claim is playing on people's prejudice of Romney's mormon religion.  Huckabee supporters, meanwhile, dislike Romney for using his personal fortune to attempt to "buy" the conservative vote and for coming across as arrogantly assuming he had the "right" to the conservative vote.  McCain supporters, meanwhile, see Romney and Huckabee as more of the same mix of neo-cons and Christian conservatives that they feel have hijacked their party.

Regardless of the outcome, this is turning into one of the most interesting elections in memory.

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When Common Knowledge is Just Wrong

 

If you have spent any time on the internet looking into either the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD "war", or the next-console "war," then you've undoubtedly seen certain "facts" stated with utmost certainty by certain format/console proponents.  In many cases, these "facts" go largely unchallenged as they are simply considered common knowledge amongst those "in the know."

The problem is that frequently those who think they are "in the know" are actually anything but.  One great example is the "fact" that HD DVD standalones far outsell Blu-ray standalones.  Since the PS3 is far and away the most popular Blu-ray player at the moment, it seemed logical that HD DVD standalones likely did outsell Blu-ray standalones -- especially since they sold at half the price.  Obviously we've seen some weekly data since the Warner announcement in which Blu-ray standalones trounced HD DVD standalones but the claims about pre-Warner sales figures continued.

It wasn't until Toshiba's extremely brief CES press conference that the truth came out.  Even by Toshiba's figures, their HD DVD players only represented 49% of the standalone "Next Gen DVD" market in the U.S. in 2007.  Of course, it was already well known that Blu-ray lead by far greater margins in other countries.  In their effort to show that their company had sold more players in 2007 than any other brand, they unwittingly let loose the dirty little secret that their format actually sold less standalone players.  Oops.  Even I was shocked by that.

Perhaps even more surprising though, is the "fact" that the PS3 is in third place in the next-gen console race and is doomed for failure.  Internet messageboards and the gaming press alike have taken to trashing the PS3 as an early failure while giving kudos to Microsoft for wisely launching their system a year ahead, guaranteeing them a victory over Sony's system.  The fact that Microsoft launched their system before properly testing it, leading to a ridiculous 33% failure rate, was reported, but quickly forgiven by the media.  After all, the Wii isn't high-def and the PS3 wasn't selling enough consoles to compete.  Right?

Not exactly.  As it turns out, Sony actually sold more PS3s to retailers in 2007 than Microsoft sold XBox 360s.  According to both companies' reports, Sony sold 8.83 million PS3 systems to retailers worldwide in 2007, while Microsoft sold 7.3 million XBox 360 systems to retailers in the same time period.  How did this happen?

A couple of thoughts struck me upon reading the figures.  The first is that most of the gaming press and online messageboards are based in the U.S., which is both Microsoft's home turf, as well as its strongest market.  The second is that members of the gaming press as well as console fanbois are by definition "hardcore gamers" -- which is the market Microsoft has been going after since it first entered the videogame market.  Casual gamers, female gamers, families, and those who want an all-in-one entertainment system really haven't been sought by Microsoft at all still.  While hardcore gamers represent a minority of video gamers, they are definitely the most vocal segment of the market, so if "viral marketing" is your marketing plan then getting these users on your side will definitely help you achieve at least the appearance of success.

Regardless, the important lesson is that "common knowledge" is often just another name for misinformation being spread by those who don't have actual data to back up their claims, and that reporters are only as good as their sources.  If you read an article or a messageboard post that can't provide such sources or provide solid numbers to back up the writer's claims, then its usually best to consider anything said more opinion than fact.

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Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: Nielson VideoScan Comparison for Week Ending 1/27/08

 

Every week Home Media Magazine reports the latest Nielson VideoScan numbers for the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD battle.  They include three figures: Weekly, Year-to-date, and Since Inception.  Weekly numbers examine discs sold at retail over the course of just the current week, the YTD numbers look at sales from the first week ending in 2008 to the present, and the since inception numbers show the relative performance of Blu-ray and HD DVD discs since the formats' respective births.

Nielson VideoScan Data for Week Ending 1/27/08

Source: Nielson VideoScan via http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

Weekly sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 82% to 18%, 100:22.0, or 4.56:1

YTD sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 77% to 23%, 100:29.9, or 3.35:1

Since Inception sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 64% to 36%, 100:56.3, or 1.78:1

For the third week in a row, Blu-ray slaughtered HD DVD by a more than 4:1 ratio.  The should get a "dead cat bounce" next week when the numbers come out for the several Buy 1 Get 1 Free sales stores held on HD DVD software last week.  But, as others have noted, the chart is starting to look like the Big Blu Pac-Man is eating one of the little red ghosts.  Still, barring a miracle, the "Little Format that Could(n't)" will be all but crushed by mid year.

Nielson VideoScan Top 10 for Week Ending 1/27/08

Source: Nielson VideoScan via http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

While the list above looks like a Blu-ray Top 10 list for last week, it's actually a Top 10 list of Blu-ray and HD DVD titles.  It just happens (again) that all of the top 10 titles were Blu-ray titles.  I'll continue the post these charts each week until either Home Media Magazine decides to stop posting or it just becomes too embarrassing for HD DVD to bother continuing.

While nearly everyone in the industry has been calling for Toshiba to throw in the towel, they seem content to continue pretending to fight... at least until the existing stock of players has sold out.  It had widely been reported that Toshiba was planning a Hail Mary play... with a major ad to be run during the Superbowl.  Well, "the ad that saved the format" never materialized.  Instead, select markets got a standard definition ad that had been run before during the affiliate break around halftime.  Most markets got nothing.  This could well be the last of the Toshiba marketing blunders in this format war, so its worth remembering for the sheer bravado required to alert the media that you were launching a massive new advertising campaign with a Superbowl advertisement, only to deliver neither a new campaign nor an actual Superbowl ad.

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