If you have spent any time on the internet looking into either the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD "war", or the next-console "war," then you've undoubtedly seen certain "facts" stated with utmost certainty by certain format/console proponents. In many cases, these "facts" go largely unchallenged as they are simply considered common knowledge amongst those "in the know."
The problem is that frequently those who think they are "in the know" are actually anything but. One great example is the "fact" that HD DVD standalones far outsell Blu-ray standalones. Since the PS3 is far and away the most popular Blu-ray player at the moment, it seemed logical that HD DVD standalones likely did outsell Blu-ray standalones -- especially since they sold at half the price. Obviously we've seen some weekly data since the Warner announcement in which Blu-ray standalones trounced HD DVD standalones but the claims about pre-Warner sales figures continued.
It wasn't until Toshiba's extremely brief CES press conference that the truth came out. Even by Toshiba's figures, their HD DVD players only represented 49% of the standalone "Next Gen DVD" market in the U.S. in 2007. Of course, it was already well known that Blu-ray lead by far greater margins in other countries. In their effort to show that their company had sold more players in 2007 than any other brand, they unwittingly let loose the dirty little secret that their format actually sold less standalone players. Oops. Even I was shocked by that.
Perhaps even more surprising though, is the "fact" that the PS3 is in third place in the next-gen console race and is doomed for failure. Internet messageboards and the gaming press alike have taken to trashing the PS3 as an early failure while giving kudos to Microsoft for wisely launching their system a year ahead, guaranteeing them a victory over Sony's system. The fact that Microsoft launched their system before properly testing it, leading to a ridiculous 33% failure rate, was reported, but quickly forgiven by the media. After all, the Wii isn't high-def and the PS3 wasn't selling enough consoles to compete. Right?
Not exactly. As it turns out, Sony actually sold more PS3s to retailers in 2007 than Microsoft sold XBox 360s. According to both companies' reports, Sony sold 8.83 million PS3 systems to retailers worldwide in 2007, while Microsoft sold 7.3 million XBox 360 systems to retailers in the same time period. How did this happen?
A couple of thoughts struck me upon reading the figures. The first is that most of the gaming press and online messageboards are based in the U.S., which is both Microsoft's home turf, as well as its strongest market. The second is that members of the gaming press as well as console fanbois are by definition "hardcore gamers" -- which is the market Microsoft has been going after since it first entered the videogame market. Casual gamers, female gamers, families, and those who want an all-in-one entertainment system really haven't been sought by Microsoft at all still. While hardcore gamers represent a minority of video gamers, they are definitely the most vocal segment of the market, so if "viral marketing" is your marketing plan then getting these users on your side will definitely help you achieve at least the appearance of success.
Regardless, the important lesson is that "common knowledge" is often just another name for misinformation being spread by those who don't have actual data to back up their claims, and that reporters are only as good as their sources. If you read an article or a messageboard post that can't provide such sources or provide solid numbers to back up the writer's claims, then its usually best to consider anything said more opinion than fact.
0 comments:
Post a Comment