With nearly half the states in the country having caucuses or primaries yesterday, it was widely thought that we would by and large know who the candidates were likely to be by now. Well, at least on the Democratic side, things are as confused as ever.
Let's look at the breakdown:
The Democrats
| State | Date | Winner | 2nd Place |
| Iowa | 1/3/2008 | Obama | Edwards |
| New Hampshire | 1/8/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| Michigan* | 1/15/2008 | Clinton | Uncommitted |
| Nevada | 1/19/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| South Carolina | 1/26/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Florida* | 1/29/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| Alabama | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Alaska | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Arizona | 2/5/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| Arkansas | 2/5/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| California | 2/5/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| Colorado | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Connecticut | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Delaware | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Georgia | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Idaho | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Illinois | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Kansas | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Massachusetts | 2/5/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| Minnesota | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Missouri | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| New Jersey | 2/5/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| New Mexico | 2/5/2008 | Too close | to call* |
| New York | 2/5/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| North Dakota | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Oklahoma | 2/5/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| Tennessee | 2/5/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| Utah | 2/5/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| American Samoa | 2/5/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
* - Michigan and Florida moved their primaries up, against the direction of the DNC. As a result, they are not receiving any delegates to the convention, and their primary votes essentially don't count, unless the DNC changes their ruling. With 98% of the vote counted in New Mexico, CNN still cannot declare a winner as only few hundred votes separate the candidates.
In terms of states won, Obama came out of Super Tuesday with more state victories than Clinton, though Clinton won in most of the larger states that tend to be democratic strongholds. In terms of actual votes cast, Clinton had a very slight victory over Obama nationwide.
Technically, neither winning a state nor getting the most votes really means anything in the primary season, as delegates at the national conventions will actually select the candidate. The different parties and different states have differing ways of selecting delegates, so until ALL the votes are counted and analyzed we don't know exactly how many delegates each candidate will get from Super Tuesday. CNN is working around the clock figuring out the delegate breakdown and the chart below is what they are currently reporting. There are still many more delegates to award from yesterday, however.
| Estimated | Estimated | |
| Primary | Total | |
| Candidate | Delegates+ | Delegates+ |
| Clinton | 630 | 823 |
| Obama | 635 | 741 |
| Pledged Delegates | 3253 | |
| Superdelegates | 796 | |
| Total Delegates | 4049 | |
| Needed to win | 2025 |
+ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far. The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all Superdelegates who have indicated their preference.
Clinton continues to lead Obama in terms of total delegates but not by a large margin. Her lead could expand some more once CNN can project more of the California delegates, but the final tally definitely isn't going to lead to either candidate being able to declare a major victory from Super Tuesday.
With the upcoming primaries and caucuses throughout the rest of this month being mainly in states where Obama leads, its almost certain the two candidates will be fighting each other at least until the next major battle on March 4.
Assuming the trends continue and neither candidate makes a huge blunder, its becoming more and more likely that neither candidate will get enough "pledged" delegates (those assigned from primary and caucus votes) to be announced the winner. In that case the 796 Superdelegates allowed to vote at the convention could pick the candidate. These are high-ranking Democratic party officials who can vote for whomever they choose. If they remain split (or enough refuse to vote to decide the nominee) then the Democrats could end up with a brokered convention, in which multiple rounds of voting would take place, allowing for "brokering" to take place for delegates to switch allegiances until one candidate gets enough delegates to take the nomination.
Looking at the Democratic exit polls, several interesting trends appear nationwide:
- Obama leads heavily among African-American voters, while Clinton leads among Latino and Asian-American voters
- Clinton leads among women, except African-American women, while Obama leads among men
- Clinton leads among voters with household incomes under $50,000, while Obama leads among those with household incomes over $50,000
- Obama leads among college-educated voters, while Clinton leads among those with less education
- Clinton has slightly more support among Democrats, while Obama has far more support from independents
- Obama leads among voters under age 40, while Clinton leads among voters over age 45 (40-45 are fairly even)
- More women are voting in the Democratic primaries and caucuses than men, though turnout is at record levels for both sexes
One thing to note is that most Democratic voters are reporting that while they support one candidate over the other at the primaries, they generally have a positive opinion of both candidates, and will vote for whichever gets the nomination.
Republicans
| State | Date | Winner | 2nd Place |
| Iowa | 1/3/2008 | Huckabee | Romney |
| Wyoming | 1/5/2008 | Romney | Thompson |
| New Hampshire | 1/8/2008 | McCain | Romney |
| Michigan** | 1/15/2008 | Romney | McCain |
| Nevada | 1/19/2008 | Romney | Paul |
| South Carolina** | 1/19/2008 | McCain | Huckabee |
| Florida** | 1/29/2008 | McCain | Romney |
| Maine | 2/2/2008 | Romney | McCain |
| Alabama | 2/5/2008 | Huckabee | McCain |
| Alaska | 2/5/2008 | Romney | Huckabee |
| Arizona | 2/5/2008 | McCain | Romney |
| Arkansas | 2/5/2008 | Huckabee | McCain |
| California | 2/5/2008 | McCain | Romney |
| Colorado | 2/5/2008 | Romney | McCain |
| Connecticut | 2/5/2008 | McCain | Romney |
| Delaware | 2/5/2008 | McCain | Romney |
| Georgia | 2/5/2008 | Huckabee | McCain |
| Illinois | 2/5/2008 | McCain | Romney |
| Massachusetts | 2/5/2008 | Romney | McCain |
| Minnesota | 2/5/2008 | Romney | McCain |
| Missouri | 2/5/2008 | McCain | Huckabee |
| Montana | 2/5/2008 | Romney | Paul |
| New Jersey | 2/5/2008 | McCain | Romney |
| New York | 2/5/2008 | McCain | Romney |
| North Dakota | 2/5/2008 | Romney | McCain |
| Oklahoma | 2/5/2008 | McCain | Huckabee |
| Tennessee | 2/5/2008 | Huckabee | McCain |
| Utah | 2/5/2008 | Romney | McCain |
| West Virginia | 2/5/2008 | Huckabee | Romney |
** - Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida all held their primaries earlier than directed by the RNC. As a result, they have had half their delegates taken away from the convention.
With three major candidates still in the race, Super Tuesday was supposed to be the day when we would learn which of the candidates would have the support to continue. As it happened, all three candidates came away with some big victories, and, as of now, all three plan to continue.
The delegate picture though, is much clearer on the Republican side:
| Estimated | Estimated | |
| Primary | Total | |
| Candidate | Delegates++ | Delegates++ |
| McCain | 663 | 680 |
| Romney | 261 | 270 |
| Huckabee | 173 | 176 |
| Paul | 16 | 16 |
| Pledged Delegates | 1917 | |
| Unpledged Delegates | 463 | |
| Total Delegates | 2380 | |
| Needed to win | 1191 |
++ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far. The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all unpledged delegates who have indicated their preference.
As you can see, McCain has an over 2:1 lead over both of his major challengers. He also has 57% of the delegates he needs to clench the nomination. It would take something huge to happen for McCain to lose at this point. However, with the conservative Republican base (and their pundits) lining up against him, it's still too early to anoint him the candidate.
The Republican exit polls tend to give us little new knowledge, but confirm what we already know:
- McCain voters tend to be moderates and independents
- Romney voters tend to be traditional conservative Republicans
- Huckabee voters are also very conservative, and are made up largely of evangelical Christians
While the conservative base of the Republican party generally ends up picking the party's candidate, with both Romney and Huckabee splitting the vote, McCain has been able to pick up enough other voters to become the likely nominee.
Unlike the Democrats, most of whom are happy with both of their candidate choices, Republican voters are very unhappy with one or more of their choices. Conservatives are outraged at McCain's success, and many of the pundits are saying they'll vote for the Democratic candidate in the general election should McCain get the nomination. Romney supporters tend to also dislike Huckabee, who they claim is playing on people's prejudice of Romney's mormon religion. Huckabee supporters, meanwhile, dislike Romney for using his personal fortune to attempt to "buy" the conservative vote and for coming across as arrogantly assuming he had the "right" to the conservative vote. McCain supporters, meanwhile, see Romney and Huckabee as more of the same mix of neo-cons and Christian conservatives that they feel have hijacked their party.
Regardless of the outcome, this is turning into one of the most interesting elections in memory.
0 comments:
Post a Comment