With the recent death of the competing HD DVD format, many brand loyalists (read: paid shills) have taken to proclaiming that digital downloads are the future, or that DVD will continue on forever as the media format of choice. Granted, these same people predicted that HD DVD would win the format war, so their crystal balls are obviously in need of serious repair, but since the claims are being made, it's worth taking the time to refute the nonsense.
First of all, DVD sales are falling. Already. That's the primary reason a new format is deemed necessary by the studios. DVD is 480p at its best. There's no getting around it -- DVD is standard-def in a soon to be high-def world. Consumers can already watch the news (CNN) in HD... why the hell would ANYONE want to watch Hollywood films in a lower quality than the nightly news?
While HDTV still has a long way to go before completely replacing SD sets, the upcoming U.S. "analog sunset" will help a great deal... as will the fact that major retailers, such as Bet Buy, have stopped carrying SD sets in larger display sizes. HDTV is here now, and as consumers replace their existing sets, its popularity will continue to grow exponentially.
In the retail market, even upconverting DVD players have reached a point where the profits to both retailers and manufacturers are almost nonexistant. There is essentially no motivation for salespeople or retailers to try to push upconverting DVD players on new HDTV purchasers. Blu-ray players, on the other hand, still produce a significant profit for both stores and manufacturers. Given that Blu-ray is TRULY HD, and not just upscaled SD... there is significant benefit to the consumer as well. With the format war out of the way, stores are going to be pushing like-branded Blu-ray players to those customers shopping for HDTVs in a big way. And consumers... seeing the huge picture quality advantages will take advantage of the "combo offers" made by retailers and will be buying into Blu-ray at the same time as they get their new HDTV.
The "keeping up with the Jones'" factor cannot be ignored either. Prior to HD DVDs downfall, many consumers didn't want to risk being left with a soon-to-be-deceased format. With that settled, and Blu-ray as the sole mainstream HD format going forward, it is now the "must have" product for technophiles and others who want to be ahead of the curve. Soon, the trend will move to the average consumer, much as DVD did in the late 90s. Soon enough, most consumers will know SOMEONE with a Blu-ray player that won't shut up about how much better it is than DVD, and will decide that they, too, need it.
As for "digitial downloads," the latest brainstorm from previous HD DVD supporters, I'll admit... it IS coming. Is it a threat to Blu-ray? No. Digital downloads will make a dent in the rental market... that much is certain. How much of a dent it makes has yet to be determined, and depends upon a number of factors such as cost, quality, and availability of high speed internet access for the consumer. The digital download services currently available lack the quality and title availability of Blu-ray discs. Worse, they cost more to rent than Blu-ray discs. There really is no upside, except, perhaps in convenience. The quality will go up some, prices may come down a bit, but the overall strategy of digital downloads (and cable/satellite VOD as well) is to offer as much product as possible... not to provide the best viewing experience possible. As such, the amount of content available will likely increase, but the quality of the actual product is unlikely to take a major turn for the better... especially compared to the quality of Blu-ray disc.
As for digital download services that provide an ownership model similar to that offered by Blu-ray disc or DVD, no successful service yet exists. One or more are likely coming... but again, the quality of the transfer is sure to pale in comparison to Blu-ray, and any "bonus content" is sure to be left behind in an effort to minimize the bandwidth required to download the purchase. For those who supported HD DVD due to its having less DRM than Blu-ray, be prepared for the apocalypse, as digital downloads will be chalk full of DRM, and will prevent you from doing things you CAN do with Blu-ray disc... such as loaning discs to friends or selling titles you no longer want.
The other MAJOR problem for digital download services is that no retailer will be pushing for the technology. Best Buy, Circuit City, Wal-Mart, etc. all have a major interest in preventing digital downloads from becoming a viable alternative to in-store sales of media. Media... Bluray or DVD... provides profit to retailers and gets consumers into the store at which point they may be able to be sold on other products with an even higher profit potential. Digital downloads and VOD services keep customers in their homes, and currently don't provide any revenue to major retailers, so their interests are completely at odds with potential providers. To those who don't think the Best Buy's of this world have any influence over consumer trends... there is no hope for you. To the realists in the audience, however... just know that what stores push is what sells. I don't want to imply that consumers are sheep... but... it's pretty simple really.
In short, Blu-ray is THE future HD format, and there's not a whole lot the haters can do about it. All the phophesizing and FUD in the world can't change the facts in the stores. Those with an irrational hatred of certain companies will certainly hate the reality of the situation, but that alone won't change it. The future is here. And... "The future is Blu."
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