Politics: Super Tuesday Political Round-up

 

With nearly half the states in the country having caucuses or primaries yesterday, it was widely thought that we would by and large know who the candidates were likely to be by now.  Well, at least on the Democratic side, things are as confused as ever.

Let's look at the breakdown:

 

The Democrats

State	Date	Winner	2nd Place
Iowa	1/3/2008	Obama	Edwards
New Hampshire	1/8/2008	Clinton	Obama
Michigan*	1/15/2008	Clinton	Uncommitted
Nevada	1/19/2008	Clinton	Obama
South Carolina	1/26/2008	Obama	Clinton
Florida*	1/29/2008	Clinton	Obama
Alabama	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Alaska	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Arizona	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
Arkansas	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
California	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
Colorado	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Connecticut	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Delaware	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Georgia	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Idaho	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Illinois	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Kansas	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Massachusetts	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
Minnesota	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Missouri	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
New Jersey	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
New Mexico	2/5/2008	Too close	to call*
New York	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
North Dakota	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
Oklahoma	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
Tennessee	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama
Utah	2/5/2008	Obama	Clinton
American Samoa	2/5/2008	Clinton	Obama

* - Michigan and Florida moved their primaries up, against the direction of the DNC.  As a result, they are not receiving any delegates to the convention, and their primary votes essentially don't count, unless the DNC changes their ruling.  With 98% of the vote counted in New Mexico, CNN still cannot declare a winner as only few hundred votes separate the candidates.

In terms of states won, Obama came out of Super Tuesday with more state victories than Clinton, though Clinton won in most of the larger states that tend to be democratic strongholds.  In terms of actual votes cast, Clinton had a very slight victory over Obama nationwide.

Technically, neither winning a state nor getting the most votes really means anything in the primary season, as delegates at the national conventions will actually select the candidate.  The different parties and different states have differing ways of selecting delegates, so until ALL the votes are counted and analyzed we don't know exactly how many delegates each candidate will get from Super Tuesday.  CNN is working around the clock figuring out the delegate breakdown and the chart below is what they are currently reporting.  There are still many more delegates to award from yesterday, however.

	Estimated	Estimated
	Primary	Total
Candidate	Delegates+	Delegates+
Clinton	630	823
Obama	635	741
Pledged Delegates	3253
Superdelegates	796
Total Delegates	4049
Needed to win	2025

+ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far.  The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all Superdelegates who have indicated their preference.

Clinton continues to lead Obama in terms of total delegates but not by a large margin.  Her lead could expand some more once CNN can project more of the California delegates, but the final tally definitely isn't going to lead to either candidate being able to declare a major victory from Super Tuesday.

With the upcoming primaries and caucuses throughout the rest of this month being mainly in states where Obama leads, its almost certain the two candidates will be fighting each other at least until the next major battle on March 4.

Assuming the trends continue and neither candidate makes a huge blunder, its becoming more and more likely that neither candidate will get enough "pledged" delegates (those assigned from primary and caucus votes) to be announced the winner.  In that case the 796 Superdelegates allowed to vote at the convention could pick the candidate.  These are high-ranking Democratic party officials who can vote for whomever they choose.  If they remain split (or enough refuse to vote to decide the nominee) then the Democrats could end up with a brokered convention, in which multiple rounds of voting would take place, allowing for "brokering" to take place for delegates to switch allegiances until one candidate gets enough delegates to take the nomination.

Looking at the Democratic exit polls, several interesting trends appear nationwide:

• Obama leads heavily among African-American voters, while Clinton leads among Latino and Asian-American voters
• Clinton leads among women, except African-American women, while Obama leads among men
• Clinton leads among voters with household incomes under $50,000, while Obama leads among those with household incomes over $50,000
• Obama leads among college-educated voters, while Clinton leads among those with less education
• Clinton has slightly more support among Democrats, while Obama has far more support from independents
• Obama leads among voters under age 40, while Clinton leads among voters over age 45 (40-45 are fairly even)
• More women are voting in the Democratic primaries and caucuses than men, though turnout is at record levels for both sexes

One thing to note is that most Democratic voters are reporting that while they support one candidate over the other at the primaries, they generally have a positive opinion of both candidates, and will vote for whichever gets the nomination.

 

Republicans

State	Date	Winner	2nd Place
Iowa	1/3/2008	Huckabee	Romney
Wyoming	1/5/2008	Romney	Thompson
New Hampshire	1/8/2008	McCain	Romney
Michigan**	1/15/2008	Romney	McCain
Nevada	1/19/2008	Romney	Paul
South Carolina**	1/19/2008	McCain	Huckabee
Florida**	1/29/2008	McCain	Romney
Maine	2/2/2008	Romney	McCain
Alabama	2/5/2008	Huckabee	McCain
Alaska	2/5/2008	Romney	Huckabee
Arizona	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
Arkansas	2/5/2008	Huckabee	McCain
California	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
Colorado	2/5/2008	Romney	McCain
Connecticut	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
Delaware	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
Georgia	2/5/2008	Huckabee	McCain
Illinois	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
Massachusetts	2/5/2008	Romney	McCain
Minnesota	2/5/2008	Romney	McCain
Missouri	2/5/2008	McCain	Huckabee
Montana	2/5/2008	Romney	Paul
New Jersey	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
New York	2/5/2008	McCain	Romney
North Dakota	2/5/2008	Romney	McCain
Oklahoma	2/5/2008	McCain	Huckabee
Tennessee	2/5/2008	Huckabee	McCain
Utah	2/5/2008	Romney	McCain
West Virginia	2/5/2008	Huckabee	Romney

** - Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida all held their primaries earlier than directed by the RNC.  As a result, they have had half their delegates taken away from the convention.

With three major candidates still in the race, Super Tuesday was supposed to be the day when we would learn which of the candidates would have the support to continue.  As it happened, all three candidates came away with some big victories, and, as of now, all three plan to continue.

The delegate picture though, is much clearer on the Republican side:

	Estimated	Estimated
	Primary	Total
Candidate	Delegates++	Delegates++
McCain	663	680
Romney	261	270
Huckabee	173	176
Paul	16	16
Pledged Delegates	1917
Unpledged Delegates	463
Total Delegates	2380
Needed to win	1191

++ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far.  The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all unpledged delegates who have indicated their preference.

As you can see, McCain has an over 2:1 lead over both of his major challengers.  He also has 57% of the delegates he needs to clench the nomination.  It would take something huge to happen for McCain to lose at this point.  However, with the conservative Republican base (and their pundits) lining up against him, it's still too early to anoint him the candidate.

The Republican exit polls tend to give us little new knowledge, but confirm what we already know:

• McCain voters tend to be moderates and independents
• Romney voters tend to be traditional conservative Republicans
• Huckabee voters are also very conservative, and are made up largely of evangelical Christians

While the conservative base of the Republican party generally ends up picking the party's candidate, with both Romney and Huckabee splitting the vote, McCain has been able to pick up enough other voters to become the likely nominee.

Unlike the Democrats, most of whom are happy with both of their candidate choices, Republican voters are very unhappy with one or more of their choices.  Conservatives are outraged at McCain's success, and many of the pundits are saying they'll vote for the Democratic candidate in the general election should McCain get the nomination.  Romney supporters tend to also dislike Huckabee, who they claim is playing on people's prejudice of Romney's mormon religion.  Huckabee supporters, meanwhile, dislike Romney for using his personal fortune to attempt to "buy" the conservative vote and for coming across as arrogantly assuming he had the "right" to the conservative vote.  McCain supporters, meanwhile, see Romney and Huckabee as more of the same mix of neo-cons and Christian conservatives that they feel have hijacked their party.

Regardless of the outcome, this is turning into one of the most interesting elections in memory.

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Latest on the Presidential Race

 

The Florida primaries held today marked the end of the "early-voting" states for the Democratic party.  (The Republican party has the Maine caucuses to be held this Friday still.)  The next main event in the nominating process will be "Super Tuesday," next week on Feb. 5, when MANY states will simultaneously hold caucuses or primaries. 

Going into the big event, though, here's where things stand.

 

The Democrats

State	Date	Winner	2nd Place
Iowa	1/3/2008	Obama	Edwards
New Hampshire	1/8/2008	Clinton	Obama
Michigan*	1/15/2008	Clinton	Uncommitted
Nevada	1/19/2008	Clinton	Obama
South Carolina	1/26/2008	Obama	Clinton
Florida*	1/29/2008	Clinton	Obama

* - Michigan and Florida moved their primaries up, against the direction of the DNC.  As a result, they are not receiving any delegates to the convention, and their primary votes essentially don't count, unless the DNC changes their ruling.

Of the four major caucuses and primaries held so far on the Democratic side, Clinton and Obama are now running even, with two wins a piece.  Clinton has won both of the "uncounted" primaries, but although it could be seen as two extra "wins" in her column, neither counts for anything currently, so it's an essential tie on the Democratic side right now.

Of course, winning a "state" doesn't really mean much in the primaries and caucus... it's all about delegates.  And unlike the Electoral College, where in most states it is "winner take all," the primaries and caucuses have very different systems for assigning delegates.  Each state does things their own way, and the candidate with the most votes in the state can actually end up with less delegates in some cases.  Also, the Democratic Party has 796 superdelegates who get to vote at the convention, but aren't pledged to vote for any specific candidate.

Given all that, here's the current delegate breakdown, according to CNN:

	Estimated	Estimated
	Primary	Total
Candidate	Delegates+	Delegates+
Clinton	48	232
Obama	63	158
Edwards	26	62
Pledged Delegates	3253
Superdelegates	796
Total Delegates	4049
Needed to win	2025

+ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far.  The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all Superdelegates who have indicated their preference.

Obama continues to lead Clinton in terms of earned delegates, but Clinton still retains a lead due to having greater support of Superdelegates.  Those Superdelegates are important on the Democratic side, but their influence in the process will diminish greatly after "Super Tuesday," when a full 22 states will have Democratic party caucuses and primaries.  The latest polls have Clinton winning a substantial number of the "Super Tuesday" states, though a lot can happen in a week's time.  Still, having so many states voting at the same time so early in the race is a disadvantage for Obama, who doesn't have the same level of name recognition as Clinton does.

 

The Republicans

State	Date	Winner	2nd Place
Iowa	1/3/2008	Huckabee	Romney
Wyoming	1/5/2008	Romney	Thompson
New Hampshire	1/8/2008	McCain	Romney
Michigan**	1/15/2008	Romney	McCain
Nevada	1/19/2008	Romney	Paul
South Carolina**	1/19/2008	McCain	Huckabee
Florida**	1/29/2008	McCain	Romney

** - Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida all held their primaries earlier than directed by the RNC.  As a result, they have had half their delegates taken away from the convention.

Things are starting to settle into place a bit more in the Republican primaries, though it remains very much a three-way race.  McCain, Romney, and Huckabee have each won at least one primary or caucus a piece, and are unlikely to make a move prior to "Super Tuesday."  Giuliani bet the farm on Florida, and placed a distant third, essentially ending his campaign.  Although nothing has been officially announced yet, he is expected to endorse McCain, possibly within the next few days.

As with the Democrats, it's the delegates that truly matter, so here's the current Republican breakdown, according to CNN:

	Estimated	Estimated
	Primary	Total
Candidate	Delegates++	Delegates++
McCain	95	97
Romney	67	74
Huckabee	26	29
Paul	6	6
Giuliani	1	2
Pledged Delegates	1917
Unpledged Delegates	463
Total Delegates	2380
Needed to win	1191

++ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far.  The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all unpledged delegates who have indicated their preference.

Even without wide support of the conservative Republican base, McCain does have the lead in terms of delegates... as well as the momentum of recent wins going into Super Tuesday.  Should Giuliani officially drop out and support McCain, his prospects will look quite good going into next week.  If Huckabee takes the Christian conservative vote, and Romney takes the economic and traditional conservative vote, McCain could take a lot of states on Super Tuesday... without really appealing to the Republican base.

 

Super Tuesday

Next Tuesday, February 5, 22 states will hold Democratic party caucuses or primaries.  20 states will hold Republican party caucuses or primaries on that date as well.  In addition, Maine will hold their Republican caucuses this Friday, February 1.  Neither party has ever had so many delegates up for grabs on one day before.

If your state is holding a caucus or primary on that date and you have a favorite candidate, caucusing or voting in your state's primary is a great way to have your voice heard.  Far fewer people vote during the primary process than in the general election, and in many cases, delegates are assigned by county, making every vote count.  Also, if you find the general election to usually be a choice between "the lesser of two evils," then this is your chance to have a candidate you truly like in the running.

If you haven't settles on a candidate yet, CNN has two more debates over the next two nights.  Tomorrow (Wednesday, Jan. 30) night at 8pm EST, they will be holding a Republican debate, and Thursday (Jan. 31) night at 8pm EST, they will be holding a Democratic debate.  Whether these turn out to be substantive debates on issues or presidential mud-wrestling remains to be seen... but it should be fun to watch either way.

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The Presidential Race Thus Far

 

Well, the 2008 U.S. Presidential race is shaping up to be an incredibly interesting race on both sides of the aisle.  Now that we have the earliest caucuses and primaries out of the way, I thought it would be good to show where we are now.

 

The Democrats

State	Date	Winner	2nd Place
Iowa	1/3/2008	Obama	Edwards
New Hampshire	1/8/2008	Clinton	Obama
Michigan*	1/15/2008	Clinton	Uncommitted
Nevada	1/19/2008	Clinton	Obama

* - Michigan moved their primary up, against the direction of the DNC.  As a result, they are not receiving any delegates to the convention, and their primary votes essentially don't count.  Neither Obama nor Edwards had their names on the ballot.

Of the three big contests so far on the Democratic side, Clinton has won 2 of them, with Obama winning 1.  Due to Michigan's primary not really counting, this gives Clinton just a one state lead over Obama.  Assuming the polls are correct, and Obama succeeds in winning next week's South Carolina primary, the two candidates will be even leading into the Florida primary (which also doesn't count), as well as Super Tuesday (February 5).  The big question at this point is what Edwards plans to do, given his diminishing results as the primary/caucus season moves on.

Of course, winning a "state" doesn't really mean much in the primaries and caucus... it's all about delegates.  And unlike the Electoral College, where in most states it is "winner take all," the primaries and caucuses have very different systems for assigning delegates.  Each state does things their own way, and the candidate with the most votes in the state can actually end up with less delegates in some cases.  Also, the Democratic Party has 796 superdelegates who get to vote at the convention, but aren't pledged to vote for any specific candidate.

Given all that, here's the current delegate breakdown, according to CNN:

	Estimated	Estimated
	Primary	Total
Candidate	Delegates+	Delegates+
Clinton	36	210
Obama	38	123
Edwards	18	52
Pledged Delegates	3253
Superdelegates	796
Total Delegates	4049
Needed to win	2025

+ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far.  The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all Superdelegates who have indicated their preference.

By earned delegates, Obama actually leads Clinton at this point... but Clinton has the support of many more Superdelegates than Obama giving her the lead by CNN estimates.  Clinton's campaign seems to have rebounded since their loss in Iowa, but her candidacy no longer appears to be as "inevitable" as it did a few months ago.

 

The Republicans

State	Date	Winner	2nd Place
Iowa	1/3/2008	Huckabee	Romney
Wyoming	1/5/2008	Romney	Thompson
New Hampshire	1/8/2008	McCain	Romney
Michigan**	1/15/2008	Romney	McCain
Nevada	1/19/2008	Romney	Paul
South Carolina**	1/19/2008	McCain	Huckabee

** - Michigan and South Carolina both held their primaries earlier than directed by the RNC.  As a result, they have had half their delegates taken away from the convention.

While the Democratic battle has turned into a two horse race, the Republican field remains extremely open.  With 6 caucuses and primaries decided on the Republican side, Romney has won 3, McCain has won 2, and Huckabee has won 1.  If Giuliani pulls out a victory in Florida (which his entire campaign is riding on), then four different candidates will each have won at least one state going into Super Tuesday.

	Estimated	Estimated
	Primary	Total
Candidate	Delegates++	Delegates++
Romney	66	72
McCain	38	38
Huckabee	26	29
Thompson	8	8
Paul	6	6
Giuliani	1	2
Pledged Delegates	1917
Unpledged Delegates	463
Total Delegates	2380
Needed to win	1191

++ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far.  The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all unpledged delegates who have indicated their preference.

Romney has a significant lead at this point on the Republican side, though with many fewer unpledged delegates than the Democrats have, he still has a LONG way to go, and with polls varying considerably from state to state, his nomination is far from a sure thing.

As of now, it appears there will be 3 or 4 Republican candidates (depending on whether Giuliani's strategy pays off) who will stick around for some time now, leading to the very real possibility of a brokered convention.

If none of the candidates receives the necessary 1191 delegates by the end of the primaries and caucuses, the Republican Party will be forced to choose a nominee at their convention.  This certainly isn't a situation they would like to see happen, but it is starting to look like a very real possibility.  In this situation, after the first round of "voting" by the delegates, no winner would be determined, and a second round of voting would be scheduled.  Between rounds, the supporters of the various candidates will try to convince delegates to switch their support to another candidate in order to reach the required number.

Though brokered conventions were common in the days before the modern primary and caucus system, the last brokered convention was the 1952 Democratic Convention.  Whether or not the Republican Party lets it get that far this year remains to be seen... but its a fun game to watch from the sidelines.

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Politics: Can 1 Lawyer in California Choose the Next President?

 

In what may be called either the last recourse of a desperate party, or the greatest political plan of all time (depending on your political affiliation), a Republican attorney in California is trying to get "The Presidential Election Reform Act" added as a ballot initiative early next year.  The initiative, which would be voted on statewide on one of two primary ballot voting days next spring, would change the way California allocates their electoral votes, and would almost certainly guarantee Republican victories in future Presidential elections. 

The initiative would change the allocation of California's electoral college votes from a "winner take all system," to a system that awards an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district's voting, and two "bonus" votes to the overall state winner.  This system is used in only two other states: Maine and Nebraska.  To give you an idea of what this would mean, out of California's 55 electoral votes that all went to John Kerry in 2004, 22 of those votes would have gone to George Bush under the new system.  That would have been despite the fact that John Kerry won the state by double-digit margins.

Although this new approach does have some benefits over the winner-take-all system, implementing it in a hugely democratic state while not doing so in Republican-leaning states, makes it next-to-impossible for a democrat to win the presidency, even if the difference in the national popular vote favored the democrat by 5 or more percentile.  Obviously such rigging of an election in nothing new to the Republican party, but an attempt to do so so flagrantly is a bit surprising.  Was it not enough to have the Supreme Court instill the George Bush in office, despite his getting less votes nation-wide and votes in Florida going uncounted?  Was it not enough to turn away minority voters from the polls illegally, or to attempt to convince minorities that the election was on another day, in 2004?  Is 2008 going to be the year when the Republicans achieve their true goal: not just gerry-rigged congressional districts that should have kept them in power in Congress, but a gerry-rigged electoral college map that makes it possible for a Republican candidate with far fewer votes to beat a Democrat candidate with far more?  Is this really how the founding fathers envisioned our government?  Hopefully, voters in California won't fall for it.

Source

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Politics: 2nd Quarter Fundraising Totals

 

Happy fourth of July everyone.  In celebration of American Independence Day it seemed fitting to report on that all American pastime: Campaign Fundraising!  The early numbers are in for the second-quarter fundraising results for the 2008 Presidential contenders.  So, how did the candidates do?

Democrats:

Barack Obama	$32.5 million ($31 million in primary donations)
Hillary Clinton	$28.5 million ($21 million in primary donations)
John Edwards	$9 million
Bill Richardson	$7 million
Christopher Dodd	$3.25 million

Obviously, the big surprise (for many) is that Obama surged ahead of Clinton in fundraising efforts for the quarter, setting a new record for second-quarter primary funds raised.  Clinton, meanwhile, raised a substantial amount, though much of it cannot be used until the general election.  Obama also raised more in the first quarter, though Clinton's "war chest" has been larger.

Republicans:

Rudy Giuliani	$17 million ($15 million in primary donations)
Mitt Romney	$14 million (all in primary donations)
John McCain	$11 million

Obviously the big news on the Republican side is that John McCain's campaign is struggling -- or crashing as the case may be.  Having only $2 million in cash-on-hand the McCain campaign has had to lay off or cut the salaries of much of the staff.

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