Latest on the Presidential Race

 

The Florida primaries held today marked the end of the "early-voting" states for the Democratic party.  (The Republican party has the Maine caucuses to be held this Friday still.)  The next main event in the nominating process will be "Super Tuesday," next week on Feb. 5, when MANY states will simultaneously hold caucuses or primaries. 

Going into the big event, though, here's where things stand.

 

The Democrats

State	Date	Winner	2nd Place
Iowa	1/3/2008	Obama	Edwards
New Hampshire	1/8/2008	Clinton	Obama
Michigan*	1/15/2008	Clinton	Uncommitted
Nevada	1/19/2008	Clinton	Obama
South Carolina	1/26/2008	Obama	Clinton
Florida*	1/29/2008	Clinton	Obama

* - Michigan and Florida moved their primaries up, against the direction of the DNC.  As a result, they are not receiving any delegates to the convention, and their primary votes essentially don't count, unless the DNC changes their ruling.

Of the four major caucuses and primaries held so far on the Democratic side, Clinton and Obama are now running even, with two wins a piece.  Clinton has won both of the "uncounted" primaries, but although it could be seen as two extra "wins" in her column, neither counts for anything currently, so it's an essential tie on the Democratic side right now.

Of course, winning a "state" doesn't really mean much in the primaries and caucus... it's all about delegates.  And unlike the Electoral College, where in most states it is "winner take all," the primaries and caucuses have very different systems for assigning delegates.  Each state does things their own way, and the candidate with the most votes in the state can actually end up with less delegates in some cases.  Also, the Democratic Party has 796 superdelegates who get to vote at the convention, but aren't pledged to vote for any specific candidate.

Given all that, here's the current delegate breakdown, according to CNN:

	Estimated	Estimated
	Primary	Total
Candidate	Delegates+	Delegates+
Clinton	48	232
Obama	63	158
Edwards	26	62
Pledged Delegates	3253
Superdelegates	796
Total Delegates	4049
Needed to win	2025

+ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far.  The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all Superdelegates who have indicated their preference.

Obama continues to lead Clinton in terms of earned delegates, but Clinton still retains a lead due to having greater support of Superdelegates.  Those Superdelegates are important on the Democratic side, but their influence in the process will diminish greatly after "Super Tuesday," when a full 22 states will have Democratic party caucuses and primaries.  The latest polls have Clinton winning a substantial number of the "Super Tuesday" states, though a lot can happen in a week's time.  Still, having so many states voting at the same time so early in the race is a disadvantage for Obama, who doesn't have the same level of name recognition as Clinton does.

 

The Republicans

State	Date	Winner	2nd Place
Iowa	1/3/2008	Huckabee	Romney
Wyoming	1/5/2008	Romney	Thompson
New Hampshire	1/8/2008	McCain	Romney
Michigan**	1/15/2008	Romney	McCain
Nevada	1/19/2008	Romney	Paul
South Carolina**	1/19/2008	McCain	Huckabee
Florida**	1/29/2008	McCain	Romney

** - Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida all held their primaries earlier than directed by the RNC.  As a result, they have had half their delegates taken away from the convention.

Things are starting to settle into place a bit more in the Republican primaries, though it remains very much a three-way race.  McCain, Romney, and Huckabee have each won at least one primary or caucus a piece, and are unlikely to make a move prior to "Super Tuesday."  Giuliani bet the farm on Florida, and placed a distant third, essentially ending his campaign.  Although nothing has been officially announced yet, he is expected to endorse McCain, possibly within the next few days.

As with the Democrats, it's the delegates that truly matter, so here's the current Republican breakdown, according to CNN:

	Estimated	Estimated
	Primary	Total
Candidate	Delegates++	Delegates++
McCain	95	97
Romney	67	74
Huckabee	26	29
Paul	6	6
Giuliani	1	2
Pledged Delegates	1917
Unpledged Delegates	463
Total Delegates	2380
Needed to win	1191

++ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far.  The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all unpledged delegates who have indicated their preference.

Even without wide support of the conservative Republican base, McCain does have the lead in terms of delegates... as well as the momentum of recent wins going into Super Tuesday.  Should Giuliani officially drop out and support McCain, his prospects will look quite good going into next week.  If Huckabee takes the Christian conservative vote, and Romney takes the economic and traditional conservative vote, McCain could take a lot of states on Super Tuesday... without really appealing to the Republican base.

 

Super Tuesday

Next Tuesday, February 5, 22 states will hold Democratic party caucuses or primaries.  20 states will hold Republican party caucuses or primaries on that date as well.  In addition, Maine will hold their Republican caucuses this Friday, February 1.  Neither party has ever had so many delegates up for grabs on one day before.

If your state is holding a caucus or primary on that date and you have a favorite candidate, caucusing or voting in your state's primary is a great way to have your voice heard.  Far fewer people vote during the primary process than in the general election, and in many cases, delegates are assigned by county, making every vote count.  Also, if you find the general election to usually be a choice between "the lesser of two evils," then this is your chance to have a candidate you truly like in the running.

If you haven't settles on a candidate yet, CNN has two more debates over the next two nights.  Tomorrow (Wednesday, Jan. 30) night at 8pm EST, they will be holding a Republican debate, and Thursday (Jan. 31) night at 8pm EST, they will be holding a Democratic debate.  Whether these turn out to be substantive debates on issues or presidential mud-wrestling remains to be seen... but it should be fun to watch either way.

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Calls to End the Format War...

    ... Continue to Fall on Deaf Ears

 

I'll be blunt up front.  I've supported Blu-ray since long before Blu-ray or HD DVD officially launched.  I made my choice and supported it.  I completely understand that others looked at the same information I did, but chose the other format.  That's fine -- but it's time to move on now.  I have no desire to throw salt into the wounds of others... but in the interests of a High-def media future, it's time for us all to unite.

I suppose that it's easy to say that had things gone the other way, I would have taken things in stride and called on everyone to unite behind HD DVD.  These are, after all, only little round discs that hold movies.  No one should be that emotionally attached to either format.  I would like to think that I would have done that, but fortunately for me I never had to face the problem. 

At the end of the day, though, we'll never know, and all the games of woulda-coulda-shoulda are pointless at this time.  What matters is that manufacturers and movie studios have aligned overwhelmingly behind one format, and it is in the best interests of everyone for the few remaining holdouts to get on the bandwagon as soon as possible.

Given my admitted bias, I don't expect everyone to care for my opinion.  Fortunately, over the last couple of weeks a chorus of experts have echoed my sentiments, so I'll let them plead my case for me.

First up, T.K. Arnold, publisher of the venerable Home Media Magazine, has called for "HD DVD Backers [to] Call it a Day":

"Toshiba and Microsoft, by stubbornly continuing to back HD DVD at a point where it is clear the format cannot win, are threatening to derail the entire home entertainment packaged-media business — Hollywood’s primary cash cow, and as such, a vital bloodline to the creation of new movies...

What Toshiba can’t do is reverse the decline in consumer spending on DVD. Only a new format can do that, one that takes full advantage of HD technology. Sure, HD DVD fits the bill, but it’s not going to prevail — that much is clear to pretty much everyone at this point. So Toshiba needs to swallow its pride and do the right thing for our industry — and, in the long term if not the short term, its own corporate shareholders."

Meanwhile, Dan Ramer of DVDFile, has written "An Open Letter to Toshiba, Paramount, and Universal":

"You fought the good fight, but the time has come.  The interests of the consumer and the motion picture industry will be better served by conceding and declaring Blu-ray Disc the winner of the format war.  It’s time to desist and cease all hostilities...

Mainstream consumers need an end to the uncertainty so they, too, can begin to enjoy the wonders of high definition video and audio with no fear of making a misguided investment.  Pacific Media Associates assessed the HD-ready display market and concluded that in 2008 prices will drop by nearly 16% and the installed base will grow by 40% to 113 million displays.  Those buyers deserve a clear and unambiguous choice of high definition disc format.  And the motion picture industry, for years dependent on the profit center of disc sales, need to sell their back catalogs – perhaps for the last time – to consumers who wish to experience films the way their directors intended.

Ladies and gentlemen, lay down your swords."

Bill Hunt, Editor of the Digital Bits, has recommended Blu-ray for some time now, but has made the following recent call:

"In any case, it seems abundantly clear to us at The Digital Bits that while the format war isn't technically over yet, the writing is on the wall. HD-DVD is now even more unlikely to win than it was in June of 2007. Given that, the continuation of the format war serves no one's best interests, aside perhaps from the short term interests of Toshiba and others in the HD-DVD camp. As such, we echo T.K. Arnold's call for Toshiba and Microsoft, as well as Paramount and Universal, to end this format war once and for all. The Hollywood studios and retailers simply cannot afford to let another year's worth of mixed messages about high-def packaged media be sent to consumers...

Bottom line: Ending this format war now is the right thing to do for this industry and for consumers overall. It's time to stop all the bitterness and the hostility, both real world and virtual, and it's time to put this unnecessary and damaging dispute behind us.

It's just time."

Scott Hettrick, Editorial Director for Hollywood in High-def, has claimed that "Toshiba's [Price Cut] Announcement [is] a Cover-up":

"It's finally safe for consumers to jump with both feet into the hi-def disc market with Blu-ray now that Warner is throwing 100% support behind the format.

Unfortunately, Toshiba is stubbornly refusing to acccept defeat or go away quietly, which is doing nothing more than causing more harm to consumers by trying to convince them to buy HD DVD product that they must know is about to become obsolete...

In any case, do not be distracted by this latest Toshiba sleight of hand. There is no reason to feel even slightly hesitant about the future viability of Blu-ray now that all but two of the biggest studios are aggressively supporting Blu-ray. The more quickly everyone gets behind Blu, the more quickly we will see even more of our favorite releases on Blu, from the Indiana Jones and Star Wars franchises to the James Bond series and the libary of Disney animated classics."

And finally, Wired magazine's Bryan Gardiner wants HD DVD to know that "It's Not a Flesh Wound":

"So why, after the market has clearly spoken (in a loud and deliberate tone), is Toshiba still pretending like it has a chance to win this war? We've already wasted close to two years waiting for this HD mess to resolve itself, and it seems more than a little insulting to have to endure Toshiba's prolonged death scene for another year.

So to the HD DVD camp I say this: You've put up a good fight, guys, but seriously, what are you going to, bleed on Blu-ray? Let's move on with our lives."

HD DVD fans have been complaining online over the last two weeks that the media had taken to beating-up on their format.  The irony is that most of the online media had been clearly rooting for HD DVD (as the underdog in the race) since the format launched.  A continuation of the war serves no one's interests, however, and anyone rooting for Toshiba to continue attempting to kill all high-def media by staying in the market with no support should rethink why they got into high-definition media in the first place.

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Stores Beginning to Clearance HD DVD Players

 

Though Toshiba and Universal have made claims that the HD DVD format is far from dead... and Paramount has apparently agreed to stay quiet for a bit longer... some stores are moving toward ending this war themselves.

Format war forums started lighting up Saturday with reports that Circuit City, the U.S.'s second largest electronics retailer, was putting all Toshiba HD DVD players on clearance.  HD DVD fans attempted to claim that either Toshiba was preparing to release new fourth-gen models or that the same models would be released with different pack-in discs.  Other retailers confirmed that no fourth-gen HD DVD players were in the pipeline, and common sense dictates that a change in pack-in discs doesn't warrant clearance pricing on players already in stores.

1080living decided to do some detective work and contacted several Cirtcuit City stores.  They all confirmed that the players were on clearance, and a few were willing to confirm that Circuit City was dropping the format.  One store manager explained the situation:

"This move is for business reasons only as Circuit City is committed to the next generation of Hi Def DVD viewing. Based on company sales of the two formats which consisted of 87 percent for Blu-Disc and 13% for HD the company felt that now should be the time to fully commit our resources to one format. Circuit City is the leader of technology and this move again reinforces out commitment to offering out customers the very best available. We expect our competitors to follow suit shortly."

Reportedly, the players currently in stores and in Circuit City's warehouses will be sold at clearance prices (the A3 is going for right at $100), and no new players will be ordered.  Perhaps worse for Toshiba, the players are being sold as "Upscaling DVD and HD DVD players," according to their tags.

Similarly, reports are emerging that Sears is not reordering any further HD DVD players, and is shipping HD DVD titles back to their vendor.

Things seem to also be happening at Best Buy, though there doesn't appear to be any "official" nationwide policy in place at this point.  Some stores, however, have reportedly moved their HD DVD players off the sole HD DVD endcap and into the standard DVD player aisle.

Target, for their part, has been fairly solidly Blu for some time now, only carrying the XBox 360 HD DVD add-on in stores.  On the Blu-ray side, they sell the PS3 and Sony BDP-S300 Blu-ray players, and have large Blu-ray displays in stores.

Rumors on other retailers dropping HD DVD players and/or discs continue to circulate, and it seems likely that now that the first stores have made their moves, others will likely follow in pretty short order.

UPDATE - 1/28: UK-based retailer Woolworth's has released an official announcement that they will be dropping HD DVD players and software from all their retail stores this March.  They site a 10-1 sales lead for the Blu-ray format over the holiday shopping season as the basis for their move.  Chicago-area retailer Grant's Appliances has also officially announced that they are stocking Blu-ray players and software exclusively. 

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Blu-ray Deals of the Week (1/27 - 2/2)

 

Here we go again.  It's good to see retailers continuing to offer deals on Blu-ray players and titles... what with the war coming to a fairly rapid end.  All in-store deals for the week run Sunday - Saturday unless otherwise noted. Online deals can run on very different timeframes.

Amazon.com:

• Up to 53% off MSRP on select Warner Blu-ray titles
• Up to 50% off MSRP on select Disney Blu-ray titles
• Panasonic DMP-BD30K Final Standard Profile (BonusView capable) Blu-ray Disc player on sale for $414.99 
• Samsung BD-P1400 Blu-ray disc player on sale for $329.98
• Sharp Aquos BD-HP20U Blu-ray disc player on sale for $334.96
• Sony BDP-S300 Blu-ray Disc player on sale for $346.65
• Sony BDP-S500 Blu-ray Disc player on sale for $537.22

Tower.com:

• Many Blu-ray titles $13-$16 (no way to just view sale titles)

JR.com:

• Select Anchor Bay Blu-ray titles on sale for $10.99

Buy.com:

• Select Warner Blu-ray titles on sale for $15.00

Best Buy:

• Receive a free Sharp Aquos BD-HP20U Blu-ray disc player with the purchase of any Sharp 1080p HDTV 42" and up

Circuit City:

• Select Blu-ray movies on sale for $24.99 (regularly $29.99)

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GTA IV Release Date Set!

 

Well, the game that was supposed to serve as the PS3's leading AAA title last holiday season, has finally been given a new official release date.  Take Two Interactive has announced that Grand Theft Auto 4 (so named because it is the 6th game in the series... makes perfect sense) will be released on Tuesday, April 29, 2008 -- unless, of course, nutjob attorney Jack Thompson can successfully get the title pulled from shelves. 

It has been revealed that the latest installment in one of the least wholesome videogame series' ever conceived will seek to push the boundaries even further by allowing you get your character intoxicated and then attempt to drive in an inebriated state.  Of course, there will be plenty of opportunities for other fun pastimes such as carjacking, killing, briefly "entertaining" young women on street corners, etc. 

Even worse, though, for your relationship with your better half, Rockstar has changed the "gametime" in the new game.  In previous Grand Theft Auto games, one "real world" minute equaled one "game" hour.  Even at that pace, many an otherwise good boyfriend were unable to be found for hundreds of hours after the release of each game.  In the new game, it takes two "real world" minutes to equal one "game" hour... so May could be a slow month for any business involving "real world" activities.  But that's okay... a substantial portion of the workforce won't show up anyway.

If you haven't yet picked up a PS3 to play GTA IV on when it arrives, you may need to make a tough decision very soon.  If you were wanting the higher end 80GB model (with PS2 backwards compatibility and SA-CD playback) you may need to get one very soon.  Best Buy has dropped the system and it appears that it may be disappearing from all retailers soon.  It is unclear if a new higher-end model with backwards compatibility will be emerging to replace the 80GB.  If so, 120GB would be likely.  It's also possible that Sony has gotten a purely software-based backwards compatibility solution working now and they will release an update for the 40GB model to allow at least partial compatibility with PS2 games.  But that is purely speculation on my part.  Backwards compatibility has always been a Sony trademark... and I just can't see them dropping it completely from their line-up.  But I'd HATE to be in the position of someone wanting to buy a high-end PS3 right now, without having any real idea as to what Sony's plan is.

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Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: Nielson VideoScan Comparison for Week Ending 1/20/08

 

Every week Home Media Magazine reports the latest Nielson VideoScan numbers for the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD battle.  They include three figures: Weekly, Year-to-date, and Since Inception.  Weekly numbers examine discs sold at retail over the course of just the current week, the YTD numbers look at sales from the first week ending in 2008 to the present, and the since inception numbers show the relative performance of Blu-ray and HD DVD discs since the formats' respective births.

Nielson VideoScan Data for Week Ending 1/20/08

Source: Nielson VideoScan via http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

Weekly sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 83% to 17%, 100:20.5, or 4.88:1

YTD sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 76% to 24%, 100:31.6, or 3.17:1

Since Inception sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 64% to 36%, 100:56.3, or 1.78:1

Some people claimed that the massive sales lead Blu-ray exhibited last week was just going to be a one-week "reactionary" result of the Warner news... but that HD DVD would bounce back once everyone settled down.  Obviously, that wasn't the case.  Even Toshiba's "fire sale" pricing on HD DVD players didn't translate into actual title sales in any way.

Nielson VideoScan Top 10 for Week Ending 1/20/08

Source: Nielson VideoScan via http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

For the second week in a row, the top 10 HD titles were ALL on Blu-ray.  With several older Blu-ray titles re-entering the list, it appears that a number of new consumers are buying Blu-ray players... whether because of the pre-Superbowl HDTV sales or because of the news that the format war is winding down and that Blu-ray has won.  Either way... good to see more people able to say "I do Blu."

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80th Annual Academy Award Nominations

 

Earlier today, Kathy Bates and AMPAS (Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences) President Sid Ganis announced the nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards Ceremony.  The ceremony to honor the greatest film achievements of 2007 is currently scheduled for Sunday, February 24, 2008 at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood, California, with Jon Stewart set to host the ceremony.  Unfortunately, everything is somewhat uncertain at the moment due to the ongoing WGA strike.

The nominees are:

Best motion picture of the year

• “Atonement” (Focus Features)
  A Working Title Production
  Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner and Paul Webster, Producers
• “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
  A Dancing Elk Pictures, LLC Production
  Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
• “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
  A Clayton Productions, LLC Production
  Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox and Kerry Orent, Producers
• “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
  A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production
  Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
• “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
  A JoAnne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production
  JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers

Achievement in directing

• “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Julian Schnabel
• “Juno” (Fox Searchlight) Jason Reitman
• “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) Tony Gilroy
• “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
• “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Paul Thomas Anderson

Performance by an actor in a leading role

• George Clooney in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
• Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
• Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
  (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
• Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah” (Warner Independent)
• Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises” (Focus Features)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

• Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.)
• Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War” (Universal)
• Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
• Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)

Performance by an actress in a leading role

• Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal)
• Julie Christie in “Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
• Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse)
• Laura Linney in “The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
• Ellen Page in “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

• Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” (The Weinstein Company)
• Ruby Dee in “American Gangster” (Universal)
• Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement” (Focus Features)
• Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone” (Miramax)
• Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)

Best animated feature film of the year

• “Persepolis” (Sony Pictures Classics) Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
• “Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Brad Bird
• “Surf's Up” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Ash Brannon and Chris Buck

Achievement in art direction

• “American Gangster” (Universal)
  Art Direction: Arthur Max
  Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
• “Atonement” (Focus Features)
  Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood
  Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
• “The Golden Compass” (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners)
  Art Direction: Dennis Gassner
  Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
• “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
  Art Direction: Dante Ferretti
  Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
• “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
  Art Direction: Jack Fisk
  Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

Achievement in cinematography

• “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.) Roger Deakins
• “Atonement” (Focus Features) Seamus McGarvey
• “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Janusz Kaminski
• “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roger Deakins
• “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Robert Elswit

Achievement in costume design

• “Across the Universe” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Albert Wolsky
• “Atonement” (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran
• “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal) Alexandra Byrne
• “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Marit Allen
• “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount) Colleen Atwood

Best documentary feature

• “No End in Sight” (Magnolia Pictures)
  A Representational Pictures Production
  Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
• “Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience” (The Documentary Group)
  A Documentary Group Production
  Richard E. Robbins
• “Sicko” (Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company)
  A Dog Eat Dog Films Production
  Michael Moore and Meghan O’Hara
• “Taxi to the Dark Side” (THINKFilm)
  An X-Ray Production
  Alex Gibney and Eva Orner
• “War/Dance” (THINKFilm)
  A Shine Global and Fine Films Production
  Andrea Nix Fine and Sean Fine

Best documentary short subject

• “Freeheld”
  A Lieutenant Films Production
  Cynthia Wade and Vanessa Roth
• “La Corona (The Crown)”
  A Runaway Films and Vega Films Production
  Amanda Micheli and Isabel Vega
• “Salim Baba”
  A Ropa Vieja Films and Paradox Smoke Production
  Tim Sternberg and Francisco Bello
• “Sari’s Mother” (Cinema Guild)
  A Daylight Factory Production
  James Longley

Achievement in film editing

• “The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal) Christopher Rouse
• “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Juliette Welfling
• “Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment) Jay Cassidy
• “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes
• “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Dylan Tichenor

Best foreign language film of the year

• “Beaufort” A Metro Communications, Movie Plus Production
  Israel
• “The Counterfeiters” An Aichholzer Filmproduktion, Magnolia Filmproduktion Production
  Austria
• “Katyń” An Akson Studio Production
  Poland
• “Mongol” A Eurasia Film Production
  Kazakhstan
• “12” A Three T Production
  Russia

Achievement in makeup

• “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
• “Norbit” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount) Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji
• “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney) Ve Neill and Martin Samuel

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

• “Atonement” (Focus Features) Dario Marianelli
• “The Kite Runner” (DreamWorks, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Participant Productions, Distributed by Paramount Classics) Alberto Iglesias
• “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) James Newton Howard
• “Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino
• “3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate) Marco Beltrami

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

• “Falling Slowly” from “Once”
  (Fox Searchlight)
  Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova
• “Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted”
  (Walt Disney)
  Music by Alan Menken
  Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
• “Raise It Up” from “August Rush”
  (Warner Bros.)
  Nominees to be determined
• “So Close” from “Enchanted”
  (Walt Disney)
  Music by Alan Menken
  Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
• “That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted”
  (Walt Disney)
  Music by Alan Menken
  Lyric by Stephen Schwartz

Best animated short film

• “I Met the Walrus”
  A Kids & Explosions Production
  Josh Raskin
• “Madame Tutli-Putli” (National Film Board of Canada)
  A National Film Board of Canada Production
  Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
• “Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)” (Premium Films)
  A BUF Compagnie Production
  Samuel Tourneux and Simon Vanesse
• “My Love (Moya Lyubov)” (Channel One Russia)
  A Dago-Film Studio, Channel One Russia and Dentsu Tec Production
  Alexander Petrov
• “Peter & the Wolf” (BreakThru Films)
  A BreakThru Films/Se-ma-for Studios Production
  Suzie Templeton and Hugh Welchman

Best live action short film

• “At Night”
  A Zentropa Entertainments 10 Production
  Christian E. Christiansen and Louise Vesth
• “Il Supplente (The Substitute)” (Sky Cinema Italia)
  A Frame by Frame Italia Production
  Andrea Jublin
• “Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)” (Premium Films)
  A Karé Production
  Philippe Pollet-Villard
• “Tanghi Argentini” (Premium Films)
  An Another Dimension of an Idea Production
  Guido Thys and Anja Daelemans
• “The Tonto Woman”
  A Knucklehead, Little Mo and Rose Hackney Barber Production
  Daniel Barber and Matthew Brown

Achievement in sound editing

• “The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal)
  Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg
• “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
  Skip Lievsay
• “Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
  Randy Thom and Michael Silvers
• “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
  Matthew Wood
• “Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
  Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins

Achievement in sound mixing

• “The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal)
  Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis
• “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
  Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
• “Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
  Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane
• “3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate)
  Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe
• “Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
  Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin

Achievement in visual effects

• “The Golden Compass” (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners)
  Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood
• “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney)
  John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier
• “Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
  Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier

Adapted screenplay

• “Atonement” (Focus Features)
  Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
• “Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
  Written by Sarah Polley
• “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn)
  Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
• “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
  Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
  Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson

Original screenplay

• “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
  Written by Diablo Cody
• “Lars and the Real Girl” (MGM)
  Written by Nancy Oliver
• “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
  Written by Tony Gilroy
• “Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
  Screenplay by Brad Bird
  Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
• “The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
  Written by Tamara Jenkins

Congratulations to all the nominees, and I hope that the night can go on as scheduled so that all the nominees can receive the honors that they deserve.

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Former XBox 360 Engineer Speaks Out on RROD Problems

 

Well, the worst kept secret at Microsoft for the past couple of years has definitely been that the XBox 360 has extremely serious design flaws, leading to an insane number of system failures.  For a long time, the company line was that failures were within industry norms (which clearly wasn't true).  Eventually, the company had to face the reality of the situation and extend the system warranty for "Red Ring of Death" errors to three years, as the percentage of systems that were failing was far outside any acceptable level.

An interviewer at 8bitJoystick.com has conducted an interview with a former Microsoft employee (and part of the XBox and XBox 360 design team), who came clean about the system's widespread failures.

The below selections have been taken from the full interview available at 8bit Joystick:

Q: So what do you think the real failure rate of the Xbox 360 is? Some have estimated it as high as 30%. I got my Xbox in early 2007 and so far so good but what do you think the chance is that it's going to die on me one day.

A: It's around 30%, and all will probably fail early. This quarter they are expecting 1 M failures, most of those Xenons. Some of those are repeat failures. Life expectancy is all over the map because the design has very little margin for most of the important parameters. That means it's not a fault tolerant design. So a good unit may last a couple of years, while a bad unit can fail in hours. I have a launch unit and have not had a single problem with it. And it's used a lot. But I don't know anyone else with a 360 that hasn't broken, except you now. There's no way to tell when yours might die. But the cooler you can keep it, the longer it will probably last. So stand it up, keep it in free air, etc. :Note : Xenon was the code name for the first Xbox 360 mother board.

Q: Of all five videogame systems on the market now (PS3, PSP, PS2, DS, Wii and 360)only the Xbox 360 has had such major hardware failure problems. Microsoft being the only company based in the US making a videogame system. What part of Microsoft's way of doing things do you think caused this situation to happen.

A: First, MS has under resourced that product unit in all engineering areas since the very beginning. Especially in engineering support functions like test, quality, manufacturing, and supplier management. There just weren't enough people to do the job that needed to be done. The leadership in many of those areas was also lopsided in essential skills and experience. But I hear they are really trying to staff up now based on what has happened, and how cheap staff is compared to a couple of billion in cost of quality.

Second, MS was so focused on beating Sony this cycle that the 360 was rushed to market when all indications were that it had serious flaws. The design qual testing was insufficient and incomplete when the product was released to production. The manufacturing test equipment had major gaps in test coverage and wasn't reliable or repeatable. Manufacturing processes at eall levels of suppliers were immature and not in control. Initial end to end yields were in the mid 30%. Low yields always indicate serious design and manufacturing defects. Management chose to continue to ship anyways, and keep the lines running while trying to solve problems and bring the yields up. Whenever something failed and there was a question about whether the test result was false, they would remove that test, retest and ship, or see if the unit would boot a game and run briefly and then ship. 360 is too complex of a machine to get away with that.

In the end I think it was fear of failure, ambition to beat Sony, and the arrogance that they could figure anything out, that led to the decision to keep shipping. That management team had made some pretty bad decisions in the past and had never had to pay a proportional consequence. I'm sure they thought that somehow they would figure it out and everything would end up ok. Plus, they tend to make big decisions like that in terms of dollars. They would rationalize that if the first few million boxes had a high failure rate, a few 10's of millions of dollars would cover it. And contrasting that cost with a big lead on Sony, would pay it in a heartbeat. They weren't even thinking about Nintendo.

Compare that to Sony, who delayed their launch, even though they were behind, when their box wasn't ready.

Q: In your opinion what do you think the main cause of the Red Ring of Death failures have been?

A: RROD is caused by anything that fails in the "digital backbone" on the mother board. Also known as a core digital error. CPU, GPU, memory, etc. Bad parts, incompatible parts (timing problems) bad manufacturing process (like solder joints), misapplied heat sinks or thermal interface material, missing parts, broken parts, parts of the wrong value, missed test coverage. Any one or more, on any chip, or many other discrete components, would cause this. And many of the failures were obviously infant mortality, where they work when they leave the factory and fail early in use. The main design flaw was the excessive heat on the GPU warping the mother board around it. This would stress the solder joints on the GPU and any bad joints would then fail in early life.

There are also other significantly high failure rates in other areas, like the DVD.

Q: How much more reliable are the current generation of Xbox 360 than the previous designs? Original Xenon, Zypher and Falcon.

A: I've heard that the failure rates for the current design is sub 10%. Much much better, but still too high imoh. And those designs haven't seen much life yet, so no one knows if that failure rate will hold.

Q: How many times does an Xbox 360 unit have to be sent in and repaired before they will replace it with a completely new unit?

A: That's not how it works. You send in a broken box, you get back a working box (hopefully). So there is a rotating stock of the original units that get repaired and returned to service. Plus, they keep finding these cashes of launch units here and there and using them too. Didn't you hear during the holidays that bundles were found with units made in 06? Those were pulled back from the retail channel last spring when the new heatsink was done, and had the new heatsink placed on them and then put into the shipping flow like any other box.

Back to the rotating inventory of launch units. You risk getting one of those back until the last one is out of the system. I imagine the next big outrage will be when some of the folks who waited till Falcon to buy a console for reliability reasons, and has to send it in for service, gets a Xenon back! Even when all of the Xenons are gone, you will likely get a newer gen repaired one back rather than new. Unless the fail rate gets so low there are none available. I'm holding my breath...

Q: There has seemed to be an executive exodus from the top of the Xbox project. Seamus Blackley, Peter Moore, James Allard. Do you think that there something that has been causing the "fathers of Xbox" to want to move on?

A: Seamus left a long time ago, and I think there was some conflict so that it wasn't entirely voluntary. J Allard left to go do Zune (along with Greg Gibson), and is a big part of the team who owns the strategic vision of MS E&D under Robbie Bach. Peter was a surprise. He sure left in a hurry, and not the way top people usually go, which is usually with a longer notice. And right after the warranty extension announcement. I don't know if they are related, but it looks like they could be in some way. I noticed you didn't mention Ed Fries, who left in 04. I heard he landed at Sony, but can't verify. But I don't see the senior team wanting to move or moving. Very few people who leave do so voluntarily. Note: I did forget to mention Ed Fries.

Q: Do you see much of a long term future for Microsoft?s Entertainment & Devices Division? I saw that they just got a new campus and troubled projects rarely get new expensive buildings. Do you see that division ever turning a profit? So what do you think their overall hardware strategy is? Do you think that they will still be selling videogame systems and music players in five years?

A: Xbox's mission statement is to preserve the Windows monopoly and extend it into the living room, as a media extender for a Media Center PC, along with a host of other MS and other company's hardware devices that fit into a digital entertainment lifestyle. MS has the bucks to keep losing money on Xbox for a long time, maybe forever. They've already lost around 6 billion dollars. How are they ever going to make that back on Xbox? They can't. Maybe they don't think they have to. That amount might be just 1 or 2 quarters of profit for an integrated hw/sw portfolio, with windows, PC Hardware, Xbox, Zune, TV, Movies, ads, etc., all providing some revenue stream to MS. You should check out their jobs site sometime. You can learn a lot about what they are doing. And their patent applications. They have a team working on making PCs now. That voice activated thing they did for Ford? Where do you think you will see that next? MS devices and sw is my guess.

That new H&E campus says that MS is getting into consumer electronics in a big way, and you can bet they are working to refine a strategy of integrating their offerings into a digital lifestyle universe, with most everything covered that we could want to stay productive, connected and entertained. Not piece meal, like some companies seem to be approaching electronics. Look at Apple. They are doing great, keep rolling out innovative stuff, but what's their vision and strategy to implement? What's their roadmap and timeline? How does it all go together, work together? I can't tell from what they say or do. But I can see what MS is trying to do. They are just getting started I think. So yes, they will still be doing this in 5 years. But they really need to mature their business and change some blood in there. Hire some key people who have experience running large hardware companies who can put the right organization, process and infrastructure in place. If they don't, they may continue to have quality and operational issues that will really dampen their progress. And with all of the external challenges in consumer markets, even MS can't afford to be it's own enemy for too much longer.

Wow!  So, in short, failure rates are at least 30%.  Microsoft knew it had problems and hadn't tested their design nearly enough, but decided to ship systems to customers anyway.  Pretty much everyone involved with the XBox project has moved on to other things (or taken the fall, and left the company).  And, best of all, the XBox mission statement is to extend the Windows monopoly into the living room.  Sometimes you really have to wonder how some people (read "fanbois") can feel such affection for ANY company... much less one that behaves in this way.

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Blu-ray vs. HD DVD Hardware Sales

 

In case the weekly software sales reports weren't embarrassing enough for the HD DVD camp, Bill Hunt over at "The Digital Bits" has posted a couple of very telling graphs showing the growing disparity between Blu-ray and HD DVD hardware sales.

The HD DVD camp has long been claiming that their standalone player sales were greater than that of the Bu-ray disc format in the U.S.  Unfortunately for them, despite constantly selling for considerably less than Blu-ray disc players, Blu-ray players have been outselling HD DVD players for some time now.

(Source: NPD via The Digital Bits)

The NPD data on player sales counts standalone Blu-ray and HD DVD player sales only.  It does not include the PS3, the XBox 360 add-on, or PCs.

As you can see, during the all-important holiday shopping season, Blu-ray disc players sold around 50% more units than the competing HD DVD players... despite the HD DVD players selling for considerably less.

So far in January, Blu-ray players have outsold HD DVD players by a factor of 2.3:1! 

(Source: NPD via The Digital Bits)

I think this graph says it all.  The first week of January was pre-Warner, while the second was post-Warner.  Prior to the Warner announcement, Blu-ray players slightly edged out HD DVD player sales in the post Christmas season.  Following the Warner news, Blu-ray players outsold HD DVD players 12.4:1!

While this data doesn't show the effect of Toshiba's "fire sale" on HD DVD player sales (that started the following week), all indicators in terms of both hardware and software sales now pretty conclusively show that if HD DVD isn't dead yet... it's certainly on life support.

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Blu-ray Deals of the Week (1/20-1/26)

 

Well, another week, another round of deals.  Personally, I've become so spoiled by Buy 1 Get 1 Free sales at Amazon, most deals don't even seem that spectacular any more.  However, those sales are generally only on the same small selection of catalog titles, so any sale that includes newer titles is a blessing.  All deals for the week run Sunday - Saturday unless otherwise noted.

Amazon.com:

• Up to 53% off MSRP on select Blu-ray "drama" titles from Warner
• Up to 50% off MSRP on select Disney Blu-ray titles
• Panasonic DMP-BD30K Final Standard Profile (BonusView capable) Blu-ray Disc player on sale for $400.48
• Samsung BD-P1400 Blu-ray disc player on sale for $329.98
• Sharp Aquos BD-HP20U Blu-ray disc player on sale for $334.96
• Sony BDP-S300 Blu-ray Disc player on sale for $346.65
• Sony BDP-S500 Blu-ray Disc player on sale for $527.72

Best Buy:

• Receive a $10 giftcard with purchase of any 2 of the following titles, or a $25 giftcard with purchase of any 3 of the following titles -- all titles are $29.99 each
  • Happy Feet
  • Underdog
  • Surf's Up
  • Ratatouille
  • 300
  • Spiderman 3
  • Wild Hogs
  • Superbad
  • Talladega Nights
  • Ocean's 13
  • Apocalypto
  • Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
• Buy "Saw IV" (available Tuesday) on Blu-ray disc + one of the following titles for $45 total -- second title choice:
  • 3:10 to Yuma
  • War
  • Good Luck Chuck
• Receive a free Sharp Aquos BD-HP20U Blu-ray disc player with the purchase of any Sharp 1080p HDTV 42" and up
• Save $399 (the value of the Blu-ray disc player) when you purchase a select Sony HDTV (models KDL46V3000, KDL46W3000, and KDL52W3000) and a Sony BDP-S300 Blu-ray disc player

Circuit City:

• Buy 2 Get 1 Free on select Sony Blu-ray disc titles ($24.99 each)
• Receive a free Sharp Aquos BD-HP20U Blu-ray disc player with the purchase of select Sharp HDTVS (models LC42D64U, LC46D64U, and LC52D64U)
• Save $420 (the value of the PS3 and Blu-ray remote) on the purchase of a Sony KDL46V2500 1080p LCD HDTV, 40 GB PS3, and Blu-ray PS3 remote control -- $1999 package price
• Save $400 (the value of the Blu-ray disc player) on the purchase of a Sony KDL46W3000 1080p LCD HDTV and Sony BDP-S300 Blu-ray disc player -- $2499 package price

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The Presidential Race Thus Far

 

Well, the 2008 U.S. Presidential race is shaping up to be an incredibly interesting race on both sides of the aisle.  Now that we have the earliest caucuses and primaries out of the way, I thought it would be good to show where we are now.

 

The Democrats

State	Date	Winner	2nd Place
Iowa	1/3/2008	Obama	Edwards
New Hampshire	1/8/2008	Clinton	Obama
Michigan*	1/15/2008	Clinton	Uncommitted
Nevada	1/19/2008	Clinton	Obama

* - Michigan moved their primary up, against the direction of the DNC.  As a result, they are not receiving any delegates to the convention, and their primary votes essentially don't count.  Neither Obama nor Edwards had their names on the ballot.

Of the three big contests so far on the Democratic side, Clinton has won 2 of them, with Obama winning 1.  Due to Michigan's primary not really counting, this gives Clinton just a one state lead over Obama.  Assuming the polls are correct, and Obama succeeds in winning next week's South Carolina primary, the two candidates will be even leading into the Florida primary (which also doesn't count), as well as Super Tuesday (February 5).  The big question at this point is what Edwards plans to do, given his diminishing results as the primary/caucus season moves on.

Of course, winning a "state" doesn't really mean much in the primaries and caucus... it's all about delegates.  And unlike the Electoral College, where in most states it is "winner take all," the primaries and caucuses have very different systems for assigning delegates.  Each state does things their own way, and the candidate with the most votes in the state can actually end up with less delegates in some cases.  Also, the Democratic Party has 796 superdelegates who get to vote at the convention, but aren't pledged to vote for any specific candidate.

Given all that, here's the current delegate breakdown, according to CNN:

	Estimated	Estimated
	Primary	Total
Candidate	Delegates+	Delegates+
Clinton	36	210
Obama	38	123
Edwards	18	52
Pledged Delegates	3253
Superdelegates	796
Total Delegates	4049
Needed to win	2025

+ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far.  The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all Superdelegates who have indicated their preference.

By earned delegates, Obama actually leads Clinton at this point... but Clinton has the support of many more Superdelegates than Obama giving her the lead by CNN estimates.  Clinton's campaign seems to have rebounded since their loss in Iowa, but her candidacy no longer appears to be as "inevitable" as it did a few months ago.

 

The Republicans

State	Date	Winner	2nd Place
Iowa	1/3/2008	Huckabee	Romney
Wyoming	1/5/2008	Romney	Thompson
New Hampshire	1/8/2008	McCain	Romney
Michigan**	1/15/2008	Romney	McCain
Nevada	1/19/2008	Romney	Paul
South Carolina**	1/19/2008	McCain	Huckabee

** - Michigan and South Carolina both held their primaries earlier than directed by the RNC.  As a result, they have had half their delegates taken away from the convention.

While the Democratic battle has turned into a two horse race, the Republican field remains extremely open.  With 6 caucuses and primaries decided on the Republican side, Romney has won 3, McCain has won 2, and Huckabee has won 1.  If Giuliani pulls out a victory in Florida (which his entire campaign is riding on), then four different candidates will each have won at least one state going into Super Tuesday.

	Estimated	Estimated
	Primary	Total
Candidate	Delegates++	Delegates++
Romney	66	72
McCain	38	38
Huckabee	26	29
Thompson	8	8
Paul	6	6
Giuliani	1	2
Pledged Delegates	1917
Unpledged Delegates	463
Total Delegates	2380
Needed to win	1191

++ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far.  The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all unpledged delegates who have indicated their preference.

Romney has a significant lead at this point on the Republican side, though with many fewer unpledged delegates than the Democrats have, he still has a LONG way to go, and with polls varying considerably from state to state, his nomination is far from a sure thing.

As of now, it appears there will be 3 or 4 Republican candidates (depending on whether Giuliani's strategy pays off) who will stick around for some time now, leading to the very real possibility of a brokered convention.

If none of the candidates receives the necessary 1191 delegates by the end of the primaries and caucuses, the Republican Party will be forced to choose a nominee at their convention.  This certainly isn't a situation they would like to see happen, but it is starting to look like a very real possibility.  In this situation, after the first round of "voting" by the delegates, no winner would be determined, and a second round of voting would be scheduled.  Between rounds, the supporters of the various candidates will try to convince delegates to switch their support to another candidate in order to reach the required number.

Though brokered conventions were common in the days before the modern primary and caucus system, the last brokered convention was the 1952 Democratic Convention.  Whether or not the Republican Party lets it get that far this year remains to be seen... but its a fun game to watch from the sidelines.

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Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: Nielson VideoScan Comparison for Week Ending 1/13/08

 

Every week Home Media Magazine reports the latest Nielson VideoScan numbers for the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD battle.  They include three figures: Weekly, Year-to-date, and Since Inception.  Weekly numbers examine discs sold at retail over the course of just the current week, the YTD numbers look at sales from the first week ending in 2008 to the present, and the since inception numbers show the relative performance of Blu-ray and HD DVD discs since the formats' respective births.

Nielson VideoScan Data for Week Ending 1/13/08

  

Source: Nielson VideoScan via http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

Weekly sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 85% to 15%, 100:17.6, or 5.67:1

YTD sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 74% to 26%, 100:35.1, or 2.85:1

Since Inception sales: Blu-ray leads HD DVD 63% to 37%, 100:58.7, or 1.70:1

Wow!!!  For anyone who didn't think the Warner news wasn't going to put an end to the HD DVD format, this week's Nielson's data should seal the format's fate.  This is the first week's data following the announcement, and, as you can see, Blu-ray trounced HD DVD by a record-breaking 5.67:1 for the week. Those with long memories may recall that those are approximately the numbers VHS was winning by over Beta, when Sony finally called it quits in that format war.  Hopefully, Toshiba has the good sense to do the same this time around.

Nielson VideoScan Top 10 for Week Ending 1/13/08

Source: Nielson VideoScan via http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

No, that's not a chart of the Top 10 Blu-ray discs sold last week... it's a chart of the Top 10 Blu-ray and HD DVD discs sold.  But since there's not a single HD DVD title on the list, it technically works both ways.  Also, interestingly, Warner commands 6 of the Top 10 positions.  Anyone who doubts the power of Warner at this point is kidding themselves.

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NPD Group Releases December, 2007 U.S. Console Sales Numbers

 

NPD has released their console sales numbers for the U.S., for December, 2007.  The next-gen console sales for the month were:

XBox 360: 1,260,000 

PS3: 797,000

Wii: 1,350,000

Although the PS3 trailed the XBox 360 and Wii consoles for the month of December (in the U.S.), it did set a personal best for the console, selling 62% more systems than it had the previous December.

With the "game drought" coming to an end, as well as Blu-ray officially winning the HDM battle, the PS3 is in a much-improved position among the next-gen console race going forward.

Looking at all three systems by months after release, the PS3 has managed to sell over 3 million consoles in the U.S. in its first 14 months of availability.  Comparatively, the XBox 360 sold over 4 million consoles in its first 14 months, while the Wii trounced both other systems, selling an astounding 7 million consoles.

Obviously, the XBox 360 has been out considerably longer than the other consoles, so in the interests of fairness, here is a chart that shows the total sales of the consoles over their lifetimes.

The truly amazing thing is how quickly the Wii is overtaking the XBox 360's year-long head start.  Also, it's good to finally see the PS3 gaining some real traction in the U.S. market.

What will be interesting to watch is to see if Sony's gameplan pays off.  Many have criticized Sony for including a Blu-ray drive in the PS3, saying that they sacrificed their console business in order to ensure that Blu-ray succeeds.  Obviously, the Blu-ray drive in the PS3 added considerable cost to the system... especially early in its life.

Sony's plan, though, was to initially use the PS3 to sell Blu-ray -- which worked quite successfully.  Now that Blu-ray has won the format war, though, the plan is to reverse the situation.  Now... the Blu-ray playback capability built in to every PS3 console can help to sell the console, with the threat of HD DVD successfully crushed.

With the 40GB PS3 selling for only $50 more than the 20GB XBox 360 Premium, the added value of a built-in Blu-ray drive (as well as WiFi and free online play) makes the PS3 a far better value than Microsoft is currently offering.  Over the next several months, it seems likely we'll see significant growth in PS3 console sales, as Sony can refocus their efforts on pushing AAA game titles out for the system and attempting to get it into as many homes as possible.

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More Blu-ray Viral Videos

 

Well, it's been while since I posted the earlier Blu-ray "ads" that made their way to YouTube, but with the war now over, it seems that others are getting into the act as well.

These new viral videos are user-created, and I take no responsibility for the content.  I present them to you here as they are making the rounds all over the net, but please use sound judgment and don't click play on either if you are easily offended.

 

The Downfall of HD DVD

 

Blu-ray vs. HD DVD

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When 1080p Just Isn't Good Enough...

 

Although the ground still hasn't settled around HD DVD's grave yet, some companies are already hard at work at replacing 1080p HDTV (on which Blu-ray is based) with even higher resolution devices.

One such device, Panasonic's new 150" Plasma screen shown off at the recent CES, uses a quad-1080p panel (3840x2160).  The 8' tall by 10' wide screen should hit the market in 2009, with an estimated price in the $100,000+ range.  That price doesn't include construction costs for the room you would have to build around the new set.

At the same show, Westinghouse showed off their own 52" LCD monitor that also operates at a native 3840x2160.  No word on street date yet, but rumor is the device will sell for a 'mere' $15,000.

But before you rush out to buy a new "quad-HD" set, however, be prepared for it too to be put to shame by an upcoming Japanese standard being developed by NHK.  Under authority granted by the Japanese Communications Ministry, NHK has been working on a new "Super Hi-Vision" standard for a few years now, with plans to market the new system by 2015.  The "Super Hi-Vision" specifications call for 7680x4320 resolution and 22.2 channel surround sound... which I'm fairly sure means it will look and sound far better than anything you could see or hear in real life.

NHK has made some amazing advances, getting the 24Gbps video stream compressed down to 180-600Mbps.  By comparison the max video transfer rate of Blu-ray is 40Mbps.  So, I guess we can all look forward to another format war between "Super Blu-Holographic Discs" and "Super Awesome holographic HD DVD" in about 10 years time. 

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