Well, the 2008 U.S. Presidential race is shaping up to be an incredibly interesting race on both sides of the aisle. Now that we have the earliest caucuses and primaries out of the way, I thought it would be good to show where we are now.
The Democrats
| State | Date | Winner | 2nd Place |
| Iowa | 1/3/2008 | Obama | Edwards |
| New Hampshire | 1/8/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| Michigan* | 1/15/2008 | Clinton | Uncommitted |
| Nevada | 1/19/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
* - Michigan moved their primary up, against the direction of the DNC. As a result, they are not receiving any delegates to the convention, and their primary votes essentially don't count. Neither Obama nor Edwards had their names on the ballot.
Of the three big contests so far on the Democratic side, Clinton has won 2 of them, with Obama winning 1. Due to Michigan's primary not really counting, this gives Clinton just a one state lead over Obama. Assuming the polls are correct, and Obama succeeds in winning next week's South Carolina primary, the two candidates will be even leading into the Florida primary (which also doesn't count), as well as Super Tuesday (February 5). The big question at this point is what Edwards plans to do, given his diminishing results as the primary/caucus season moves on.
Of course, winning a "state" doesn't really mean much in the primaries and caucus... it's all about delegates. And unlike the Electoral College, where in most states it is "winner take all," the primaries and caucuses have very different systems for assigning delegates. Each state does things their own way, and the candidate with the most votes in the state can actually end up with less delegates in some cases. Also, the Democratic Party has 796 superdelegates who get to vote at the convention, but aren't pledged to vote for any specific candidate.
Given all that, here's the current delegate breakdown, according to CNN:
| Estimated | Estimated | |
| Primary | Total | |
| Candidate | Delegates+ | Delegates+ |
| Clinton | 36 | 210 |
| Obama | 38 | 123 |
| Edwards | 18 | 52 |
| Pledged Delegates | 3253 | |
| Superdelegates | 796 | |
| Total Delegates | 4049 | |
| Needed to win | 2025 |
+ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far. The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all Superdelegates who have indicated their preference.
By earned delegates, Obama actually leads Clinton at this point... but Clinton has the support of many more Superdelegates than Obama giving her the lead by CNN estimates. Clinton's campaign seems to have rebounded since their loss in Iowa, but her candidacy no longer appears to be as "inevitable" as it did a few months ago.
The Republicans
| State | Date | Winner | 2nd Place |
| Iowa | 1/3/2008 | Huckabee | Romney |
| Wyoming | 1/5/2008 | Romney | Thompson |
| New Hampshire | 1/8/2008 | McCain | Romney |
| Michigan** | 1/15/2008 | Romney | McCain |
| Nevada | 1/19/2008 | Romney | Paul |
| South Carolina** | 1/19/2008 | McCain | Huckabee |
** - Michigan and South Carolina both held their primaries earlier than directed by the RNC. As a result, they have had half their delegates taken away from the convention.
While the Democratic battle has turned into a two horse race, the Republican field remains extremely open. With 6 caucuses and primaries decided on the Republican side, Romney has won 3, McCain has won 2, and Huckabee has won 1. If Giuliani pulls out a victory in Florida (which his entire campaign is riding on), then four different candidates will each have won at least one state going into Super Tuesday.
| Estimated | Estimated | |
| Primary | Total | |
| Candidate | Delegates++ | Delegates++ |
| Romney | 66 | 72 |
| McCain | 38 | 38 |
| Huckabee | 26 | 29 |
| Thompson | 8 | 8 |
| Paul | 6 | 6 |
| Giuliani | 1 | 2 |
| Pledged Delegates | 1917 | |
| Unpledged Delegates | 463 | |
| Total Delegates | 2380 | |
| Needed to win | 1191 |
++ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far. The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all unpledged delegates who have indicated their preference.
Romney has a significant lead at this point on the Republican side, though with many fewer unpledged delegates than the Democrats have, he still has a LONG way to go, and with polls varying considerably from state to state, his nomination is far from a sure thing.
As of now, it appears there will be 3 or 4 Republican candidates (depending on whether Giuliani's strategy pays off) who will stick around for some time now, leading to the very real possibility of a brokered convention.
If none of the candidates receives the necessary 1191 delegates by the end of the primaries and caucuses, the Republican Party will be forced to choose a nominee at their convention. This certainly isn't a situation they would like to see happen, but it is starting to look like a very real possibility. In this situation, after the first round of "voting" by the delegates, no winner would be determined, and a second round of voting would be scheduled. Between rounds, the supporters of the various candidates will try to convince delegates to switch their support to another candidate in order to reach the required number.
Though brokered conventions were common in the days before the modern primary and caucus system, the last brokered convention was the 1952 Democratic Convention. Whether or not the Republican Party lets it get that far this year remains to be seen... but its a fun game to watch from the sidelines.
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