The Florida primaries held today marked the end of the "early-voting" states for the Democratic party. (The Republican party has the Maine caucuses to be held this Friday still.) The next main event in the nominating process will be "Super Tuesday," next week on Feb. 5, when MANY states will simultaneously hold caucuses or primaries.
Going into the big event, though, here's where things stand.
The Democrats
| State | Date | Winner | 2nd Place |
| Iowa | 1/3/2008 | Obama | Edwards |
| New Hampshire | 1/8/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| Michigan* | 1/15/2008 | Clinton | Uncommitted |
| Nevada | 1/19/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
| South Carolina | 1/26/2008 | Obama | Clinton |
| Florida* | 1/29/2008 | Clinton | Obama |
* - Michigan and Florida moved their primaries up, against the direction of the DNC. As a result, they are not receiving any delegates to the convention, and their primary votes essentially don't count, unless the DNC changes their ruling.
Of the four major caucuses and primaries held so far on the Democratic side, Clinton and Obama are now running even, with two wins a piece. Clinton has won both of the "uncounted" primaries, but although it could be seen as two extra "wins" in her column, neither counts for anything currently, so it's an essential tie on the Democratic side right now.
Of course, winning a "state" doesn't really mean much in the primaries and caucus... it's all about delegates. And unlike the Electoral College, where in most states it is "winner take all," the primaries and caucuses have very different systems for assigning delegates. Each state does things their own way, and the candidate with the most votes in the state can actually end up with less delegates in some cases. Also, the Democratic Party has 796 superdelegates who get to vote at the convention, but aren't pledged to vote for any specific candidate.
Given all that, here's the current delegate breakdown, according to CNN:
| Estimated | Estimated | |
| Primary | Total | |
| Candidate | Delegates+ | Delegates+ |
| Clinton | 48 | 232 |
| Obama | 63 | 158 |
| Edwards | 26 | 62 |
| Pledged Delegates | 3253 | |
| Superdelegates | 796 | |
| Total Delegates | 4049 | |
| Needed to win | 2025 |
+ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far. The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all Superdelegates who have indicated their preference.
Obama continues to lead Clinton in terms of earned delegates, but Clinton still retains a lead due to having greater support of Superdelegates. Those Superdelegates are important on the Democratic side, but their influence in the process will diminish greatly after "Super Tuesday," when a full 22 states will have Democratic party caucuses and primaries. The latest polls have Clinton winning a substantial number of the "Super Tuesday" states, though a lot can happen in a week's time. Still, having so many states voting at the same time so early in the race is a disadvantage for Obama, who doesn't have the same level of name recognition as Clinton does.
The Republicans
| State | Date | Winner | 2nd Place |
| Iowa | 1/3/2008 | Huckabee | Romney |
| Wyoming | 1/5/2008 | Romney | Thompson |
| New Hampshire | 1/8/2008 | McCain | Romney |
| Michigan** | 1/15/2008 | Romney | McCain |
| Nevada | 1/19/2008 | Romney | Paul |
| South Carolina** | 1/19/2008 | McCain | Huckabee |
| Florida** | 1/29/2008 | McCain | Romney |
** - Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida all held their primaries earlier than directed by the RNC. As a result, they have had half their delegates taken away from the convention.
Things are starting to settle into place a bit more in the Republican primaries, though it remains very much a three-way race. McCain, Romney, and Huckabee have each won at least one primary or caucus a piece, and are unlikely to make a move prior to "Super Tuesday." Giuliani bet the farm on Florida, and placed a distant third, essentially ending his campaign. Although nothing has been officially announced yet, he is expected to endorse McCain, possibly within the next few days.
As with the Democrats, it's the delegates that truly matter, so here's the current Republican breakdown, according to CNN:
| Estimated | Estimated | |
| Primary | Total | |
| Candidate | Delegates++ | Delegates++ |
| McCain | 95 | 97 |
| Romney | 67 | 74 |
| Huckabee | 26 | 29 |
| Paul | 6 | 6 |
| Giuliani | 1 | 2 |
| Pledged Delegates | 1917 | |
| Unpledged Delegates | 463 | |
| Total Delegates | 2380 | |
| Needed to win | 1191 |
++ - The primary delegates figure indicates the estimated number of delegates who have been earned by the various primaries and caucuses held so far. The total delegates is CNN's estimate of all delegates who are anticipated to vote for a specific candidate, including all unpledged delegates who have indicated their preference.
Even without wide support of the conservative Republican base, McCain does have the lead in terms of delegates... as well as the momentum of recent wins going into Super Tuesday. Should Giuliani officially drop out and support McCain, his prospects will look quite good going into next week. If Huckabee takes the Christian conservative vote, and Romney takes the economic and traditional conservative vote, McCain could take a lot of states on Super Tuesday... without really appealing to the Republican base.
Super Tuesday
Next Tuesday, February 5, 22 states will hold Democratic party caucuses or primaries. 20 states will hold Republican party caucuses or primaries on that date as well. In addition, Maine will hold their Republican caucuses this Friday, February 1. Neither party has ever had so many delegates up for grabs on one day before.
If your state is holding a caucus or primary on that date and you have a favorite candidate, caucusing or voting in your state's primary is a great way to have your voice heard. Far fewer people vote during the primary process than in the general election, and in many cases, delegates are assigned by county, making every vote count. Also, if you find the general election to usually be a choice between "the lesser of two evils," then this is your chance to have a candidate you truly like in the running.
If you haven't settles on a candidate yet, CNN has two more debates over the next two nights. Tomorrow (Wednesday, Jan. 30) night at 8pm EST, they will be holding a Republican debate, and Thursday (Jan. 31) night at 8pm EST, they will be holding a Democratic debate. Whether these turn out to be substantive debates on issues or presidential mud-wrestling remains to be seen... but it should be fun to watch either way.
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