In a rather exhaustive 207 page report, video game industry analysts at Wedbush Morgan Securities laid out their predictions for the three next-generation consoles. (Shouldn't these really be the "current-generation" models by now?)
The report cites the impending Blu-ray victory over HD DVD as one of the major factors for the PS3's long-term success. It also claims that exclusive properties from the three manufacturers will play a key role in determining the eventual winner.
Excerpts:
"We expect the dominant console at the end of the next cycle to be the Sony PlayStation 3 (PS3), primarily due to our assessment that Sony will win the high definition DVD format war."
"Ultimately, we see Sony 'winning' the console war with 36% of the market, with Nintendo 'capturing' second place at 34% and Microsoft finishing third at 30%.
These estimates do not include market shares in Japan, which we expect to be dominated by Nintendo (51% through 2011) and Sony (44%)."
Granted, the prediction is for an overall tight race, with the PS3 edging out the MUCH lower priced Wii. Given that the report concludes with the numbers from 2009, I would expect that the PS3's staying power (as shown by the PS1 and PS2) will keep its sales growing long after Microsoft has released yet another console and the graphics limitations of Nintendo's Wii have made it look decidedly dated.
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