Back up and running

Just a brief note before I get back to business around here...

Due to a confluence of events many have recently wondered whether or not I intended to keep this site up and running. The answer is yes, but its been a trying month. Some people reported being unable to access the site at various times, though the issues with Blogger and Go Daddy should now have been resolved. Also, Windows Live Writer, the blogging client I have used up until now, has recently started having problems updating older posts... making it impossible to update the title database, and difficult to do much of anything else. That issue hasn't been resolved, however, I'm now on a Mac, and am using a VERY roundabout way to update those posts using Windows Live Writer to edit the post (in a virtual machine) and then Ecto (a blog client for the Mac) to actually post. It's a mess, but Microsoft has promised to fix the issue in the next update to Live Writer. Regardless, the title lists are all up to date now, and everything else should be updated very soon.

More importantly, if you live in the United States, the election is this coming Tuesday. Although I made the decision awhile ago not to focus on politics on this site, that is my other major interest. This is quite possibly the most important election of most of our lives, and will likely decide the direction our country takes over the next several decades. Whatever your beliefs and political leanings, if you are eligible to vote, you owe it to yourself to make sure your voice is heard. Remember, if you don't vote, you give up the right to bitch about the guy that wins!

Now, then... I'll get off my soapbox.

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The State of the Format Address (Blu-ray after Q3 2008)

 

As we head into Q4 2008, its worth taking a look at the sales and release data for this past quarter, as well as since the inception of the format.  All statistics in this piece are for the U.S. only.

In terms of releases, this past quarter has marked a substantial increase in the number of titles released.  A total of 236 Blu-ray disc titles (not including adult titles or PS3 games) were released between July 1 and Sept. 30, 2008, and 82% increase from the previous quarter, and a full 70% of the number of titles released all of last year.

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The above chart shows how many titles were released on Blu-ray disc in each quarter since the formats release, as well as how many titles have been announced so far for Q4 2008.

AS you can see, the first quarter in which over 100 titles were released was Q4 2007, and it wasn’t until Q3 2008 that over 200 titles were released in a single quarter.  Q4 2008 is shaping up very well, and its almost certain that once all titles have been announced, the total will be well over 300.

The total U.S. title count stands at 886 currently, and should easily be over 1,200 by the end of the year.  (Again, note that PS3 games, adult titles, and BD-R releases are not included in the total.

Although full sales data is not yet available for the last two weeks of Q3, the data throughout the rest of the quarter shows that Blu-ray disc sales varied between $6.1 mil and $10.6 mil per week.  Sales of DVD discs varied between $111 mil and $125 mil per week over the same period.  This data is for all titles, as opposed to the early release top 20 data I report each week, and thus gives DVD full credit for its extensive catalog of available titles, most of which are not yet available on Blu-ray disc.  Still, this leaves Blu-ray with between 5.3% and 8.3% of the total market each week.

Despite certain doomsday predictions that Blu-ray player pricing would increase following HD DVDs demise, the opposite has occurred.  Both Sony and Samsung have dropped the MSRP on BD-Live (Profile 2.0) players to below $300 now, and both “house brand” and name brand BonusView (Profile 1.1) players frequently sell for even less

Given the current economic slump (or recession… or dep—forget I said that) most analysts are prediction slow or no growth in retail this Q4.  This will make it more difficult for Blu-ray to make its big push into the mass market this year, though with the price cuts and release of many exciting titles it looks likely to do quite well, and to enter 2009 ready to truly break-out as a format to fully take on DVD.

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Nielson Videoscan Blu-ray vs. DVD Results for Weeks Ending 9/14 and 9/21

 

In case you didn’t have to look at enough charts due to the campaign season, here’s some that are actually interesting.

Methodology: Due to the disparity between the number of DVDs available vs. Blu-ray Discs available, Nielson VideoScan has chosen to compare only the Top 20 selling DVDs to the Top 20 Blu-ray Discs to track Blu-ray vs. DVD sales.  While this method results in interesting results for comparing the top selling discs on both formats, it is inherently biased towards Blu-ray as it is comparing an equal number of titles on both formats.  Whilst Blu-ray has over 700 titles released in the U.S., DVD has tens of thousands of released titles.

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Source: Nielson VideoScan via www.homemediamagazine.com

Another 8% week.  Blu-ray is hanging around the same point nearly every week lately.  They really need to make some major plays this Q4.

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Source: Nielson VideoScan via www.homemediamagazine.com

Speed Racer topped the sales chart for the week.  If nothing else that explains the lackluster percentage.

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Source: Nielson VideoScan via www.homemediamagazine.com

Say it with me now… 8%.  Shocking… absolutely astounding… ok, boring.  I don’t make the data, I just report

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Source: Nielson VideoScan via www.homemediamagazine.com

The only major surprise in the above charts is that Pan’s Labyrinth, Shoot Em Up, and A Clockwork Orange, all of which have been available on both BD and DVD forever now, sold more on Blu-ray than on DVD. 

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NPD Group Releases August, 2008 U.S. Console Sales Numbers

 

NPD has released their console sales numbers for the U.S., for August, 2008.  The next-gen console sales for the month were:

XBox 360: 195,200 

PS3: 185,400

Wii: 453,000

The recent price break has been beneficial to the XBox 360, allowing it to beat the PS3 in America for the first month since April.  Nintendo, of course, continues to prove that casual gamers (and even so-called “nongamers”) can actually be a far more profitable group than the “typical gamers” and hardcore gamers that Microsoft and Sony are fighting over.

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The above graph shows how well each of the three next-gen systems sold in the U.S. so far in 2008.

Nintendo’s dominance is even more clear in the graph showing it skyrocketing past both other systems in sales this year.  With the “struggling economy” (which is the nice way of saying massive clusterf@ck on Wall St) the premium-priced PS3 likely won’t have the breakout Christmas this year they were hoping for.  The Xbox 360 will likely struggle as well, as though the lowest-priced model is comparable to the Wii’s pricing, the hard drive-equipped models cost more, as does the online service for those wishing to play against other players online.

Still, the XBox 360 has been out a year longer than the other consoles, so here is a chart that shows the total U.S. sales of the consoles over their lifetimes.

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The Wii is now almost 1,000,000 units ahead of the XBox 360 in the United States, despite the year-long head start of Microsoft’s system.  The PS3 is trending very close to the XBox 360 in terms of time since release sales, which, if the trend continues, doesn’t bode especially well for the system in the U.S.  The PS3 needs to break away more substantially to catch the 360 in Microsoft’s home territory.

As many people have been asking me about worldwide sales numbers, I'll go ahead and provide a screengrab from VGChartz below.  While VGChartz' data is certainly interesting to look at, it must be noted that they have a smaller sample of data to work from than the NPD data for the U.S., and that they have to attempt to extrapolate data worldwide.  As such, it must be assumed that the data is somewhat less accurate than the NPD data.

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Worldwide sales definitely shows an even bigger trend for the Wii's dominance and the slowing sales of the Xbox 360.  The PS3 trails the Xbox 360 by only 25% now, despite the Xbox's year-long head start.

While Microsoft continues to act as though the XBox 360 has been a rousing success, the slowing sales of the system, combined with massive hardware failures and a lowered price are doing nothing to bring long-term profitability to the Xbox division, something which Microsoft had promised when they launched the system.  At that time, Microsoft made it quite clear to investors that development of any future systems would be contingent on the Xbox division bringing a profit to the company in the current gen.

That leaves Microsoft in a precarious position… most likely, if they didn’t have to answer to investors, they would ditch the 360 and launch a new system next fall – one that is indisputably superior to the competing PS3 and doesn’t rely on a severely flawed design.  But the costs of developing the 360 aren’t even close to being recouped, much loess the money the extended warranty has cost the company, so an investor backlash would almost certainly result.  This leaves them in an awkward position, with the mass production of Blu-ray OPUs and other components dramatically cutting the production costs of the PS3 to ever-closer to that of the 360.  Even at higher (sometime considerably higher) prices, the PS3 has more than held its own this year against Microsoft’s offering, and if Sony decides to take a bigger hit on the system due to the economy, Microsoft could conceivably be forced (by their own investors) out of the gaming market by the end of this generation.

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